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Taking Guns to a Knife Fight: An Empirical Study of Effective Counterinsurgency

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Abstract:

The qualities and structures of a state’s internal security forces have a significant impact on reducing the risks and overall casualties from insurgent violence. To test this argument, I introduce a new micro-conflict dataset on counterinsurgency operations in the Philippines between 2001 and 2004 and measure the relationship between conflict deaths and the capacities of small military units tasked with suppressing rebel threats at local levels. My empirical tests isolate qualities of security forces not directly tied to aggregate state resources. I find that small units possessing superior leadership, training, and access to local information are more likely to conduct effective and discriminate counterinsurgency. Deploying locally recruited soldiers with specially trained elite forces as cadres is particularly effective at achieving this potent combination of capabilities. I also find empirical evidence that government forces that initiate operations at a higher rate relative to their opponents suffer fewer of their own soldiers killed in action, inflict more rebel casualties, and reduce the number of civilian fatalities as a result of conflict. These findings demonstrate that variation in the qualities of the military forces tasked with combating insurgent threats affect important conflict outcomes. Significantly, they indicate this variation is not fully determined by factors such as state wealth and level of development and that there is thus a major role for professional training of militaries in reducing the damage from, and possible prospects for, protracted insurgencies and civil wars.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

oper (254), forc (247), unit (193), rebel (149), govern (138), initi (130), indigen (114), kill (113), elit (108), local (85), incid (82), mean (79), regular (79), death (77), coin (74), municip (68), effect (67), level (65), area (64), number (62), figur (60),

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insurgency, counterinsurgency, civil war, rebellion, military
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

Felter, Joe. "Taking Guns to a Knife Fight: An Empirical Study of Effective Counterinsurgency" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 31, 2006 <Not Available>. 2011-03-13 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p151510_index.html>

APA Citation:

Felter, J. , 2006-08-31 "Taking Guns to a Knife Fight: An Empirical Study of Effective Counterinsurgency" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA Online <PDF>. 2011-03-13 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p151510_index.html

Publication Type: Proceeding
Abstract: The qualities and structures of a state’s internal security forces have a significant impact on reducing the risks and overall casualties from insurgent violence. To test this argument, I introduce a new micro-conflict dataset on counterinsurgency operations in the Philippines between 2001 and 2004 and measure the relationship between conflict deaths and the capacities of small military units tasked with suppressing rebel threats at local levels. My empirical tests isolate qualities of security forces not directly tied to aggregate state resources. I find that small units possessing superior leadership, training, and access to local information are more likely to conduct effective and discriminate counterinsurgency. Deploying locally recruited soldiers with specially trained elite forces as cadres is particularly effective at achieving this potent combination of capabilities. I also find empirical evidence that government forces that initiate operations at a higher rate relative to their opponents suffer fewer of their own soldiers killed in action, inflict more rebel casualties, and reduce the number of civilian fatalities as a result of conflict. These findings demonstrate that variation in the qualities of the military forces tasked with combating insurgent threats affect important conflict outcomes. Significantly, they indicate this variation is not fully determined by factors such as state wealth and level of development and that there is thus a major role for professional training of militaries in reducing the damage from, and possible prospects for, protracted insurgencies and civil wars.

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Document Type: PDF
Page count: 54
Word count: 25062
Text sample:
Taking Guns to a Knife Fight Effective Military Support to Counterinsurgency DRAFT August 24 2006 Abstract:The qualities and structures of a state’s internal security forces have a significant impact on reducing the risks and overall casualties from insurgent violence. To test this argument I introduce a new micro-conflict dataset on counterinsurgency operations in the Philippines between 2001 and 2004 and measure the relationship between conflict deaths and the capacities of small military units tasked with suppressing rebel threats at
to as “White SOF”. 80 John McCuen points to one example of incentives to field effective COIN forces from the Greek National Guard Defence Battalions (Tagmata Ethnofylakha Amynhs). These “T.E.A.” units have regular army cadres at battalion and company level and at one point notes McCuen Army officers graduating from the senior officer War College were required to serve with the T.E.A. as a prerequisite for promotion. McCuen p. 111. 81 The benefit of locally recruited troops is greatly


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