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Taking Guns to a Knife Fight: An Empirical Study of Effective Counterinsurgency
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to bolster government legitimacy and persuade the fence sitters to fall on the side of the law. More of a bad thing, however, can’t be useful in efforts to combat insurgency. If the COIN force’s operations include burning and pillaging villages and inflicting non-combatant casualties, however, this “initiative” is not likely to translate into effective counterinsurgency or lower expected conflict deaths over time. These types of government initiated actions are not characteristic of the operations conducted by the Armed Forces of the Philippines during the 2001-2004 sample analyzed in this study.
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The Independent Variables The independent variables included in this analysis account for a variety of factors associated with the outcomes of insurgency and counterinsurgency operations. These include those measures associated both with “demand” and “supply” oriented explanations for insurgent violence as well as proxies for important qualities and characteristics of the forces involved in combating insurgency. This section defines these variables, their coding rules and how they vary in this sample. gini2k
: This measure is intended to address theories that explain rebellion as a result of
popular perceptions of disparity among marginalized groups. Ted Robert Gurr (1971) calls this perceived relative depravation in his theory of why men rebel. One of the best measurable indicators of this potentially subjective perception is the GINI coefficient which measures the degree of disparity in income on a 0-1 scale with 1 indicating total inequality. Among Philippine provinces, the GINI coefficient averages .42 and ranges from .24- .53.
pcntmuslim
: In the Philippines’ case, the long history of economic marginalization,
political disenfranchisement and attempts to assimilate the sizable Muslim minority contribute to persistent grievances among Filipino Muslims. Only 150 out of 1623 municipalities in the sample have greater than .1% Muslims in their respective provinces. The southern provinces of Basilan, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi have greater than 50% Muslim population. Based on year 2000 census data the distribution of provincial percentages of the population identifying themselves as Muslims varied from zero to .97. Only ten provinces recorded Muslim populations over 5% of their total with highest being Sulu at 97% Muslim.hdi2k: The human development index (HDI) captures a basket of hearts and mind related measures as well as proxies for other theories of rebellion. Incorporated into HDI is a weighted average of life expectancy, literacy, secondary school enrollment rate, and per capita income combined. The mean value for the Philippines is .59 and ranges from .35 to .76. The Philippines National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) compiled this measure from 2000 census data.area: Municipality area calculated using tools available in Geospatial Information System (GIS). This is measured in square degrees.
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lpop2k: Municipality population as determined by the 2000 Philippine census. This is logged and varies from 5.4 – 14.5 with a mean of 10.3.
roughterrain: The standard deviation in terrain elevation in meters calculated at the municipality using GIS tools is used as a proxy measure for terrain roughness. The mean elevation ranges from 0-1857 with a mean of 247 meters. The standard deviation of the
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to bolster government legitimacy and persuade the fence sitters to fall on the side of the
law. More of a bad thing, however, can’t be useful in efforts to combat insurgency. If the
COIN force’s operations include burning and pillaging villages and inflicting non-
combatant casualties, however, this “initiative” is not likely to translate into effective
counterinsurgency or lower expected conflict deaths over time. These types of
government initiated actions are not characteristic of the operations conducted by the
Armed Forces of the Philippines during the 2001-2004 sample analyzed in this study.
The Independent Variables
The independent variables included in this analysis account for a variety of factors
associated with the outcomes of insurgency and counterinsurgency operations. These
include those measures associated both with “demand” and “supply” oriented
explanations for insurgent violence as well as proxies for important qualities and
characteristics of the forces involved in combating insurgency. This section defines these
variables, their coding rules and how they vary in this sample.
gini2k
: This measure is intended to address theories that explain rebellion as a result of
popular perceptions of disparity among marginalized groups. Ted Robert Gurr (1971)
calls this perceived relative depravation in his theory of why men rebel. One of the best
measurable indicators of this potentially subjective perception is the GINI coefficient
which measures the degree of disparity in income on a 0-1 scale with 1 indicating total
inequality. Among Philippine provinces, the GINI coefficient averages .42 and ranges
from .24- .53.
pcntmuslim
: In the Philippines’ case, the long history of economic marginalization,
political disenfranchisement and attempts to assimilate the sizable Muslim minority
contribute to persistent grievances among Filipino Muslims. Only 150 out of 1623
municipalities in the sample have greater than .1% Muslims in their respective provinces.
The southern provinces of Basilan, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi have greater than
50% Muslim population. Based on year 2000 census data the distribution of provincial
percentages of the population identifying themselves as Muslims varied from zero to .97.
Only ten provinces recorded Muslim populations over 5% of their total with highest
being Sulu at 97% Muslim.
hdi2k: The human development index (HDI) captures a basket of hearts and mind related
measures as well as proxies for other theories of rebellion. Incorporated into HDI is a
weighted average of life expectancy, literacy, secondary school enrollment rate, and per
capita income combined. The mean value for the Philippines is .59 and ranges from .35 to
.76. The Philippines National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) compiled this
measure from 2000 census data.
area: Municipality area calculated using tools available in Geospatial Information System
(GIS). This is measured in square degrees.
lpop2k: Municipality population as determined by the 2000 Philippine census. This is
logged and varies from 5.4 – 14.5 with a mean of 10.3.
roughterrain: The standard deviation in terrain elevation in meters calculated at the
municipality using GIS tools is used as a proxy measure for terrain roughness. The mean
elevation ranges from 0-1857 with a mean of 247 meters. The standard deviation of the
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