civilian fatalities albeit right at the threshold level of statistical significance (p=.100). In
the 358 municipal year observations where at least 3 deaths were inflicted as a result of
conflict, elite cadres predict greater rebels killed- increasing the coefficient by a factor of
four compared to cases of indigenous militias without elite cadres.
This test lends greater support to my theory. The statistical significance of the
performance boost is reduced when these controls for operations tempo and intensity are
introduced into the model. The signs on the coefficients for the boost associated with the
assignment of elite cadres, however, are consistent with the model not restricted by the
tempo or deadliness of operations and most are still within accepted thresholds of
statistical significance.
The effect elite cadre led indigenous detachments have in environments of varying
proximity to rebel centers of control are reported at Figure 28. In municipalities located
within 50 kilometers of an established MILF Base, elite cadre led detachments are
statistically and substantively significant predictors of greater rebels killed in a
municipality year with a coefficient over six times greater than indigenous detachments
led by regular cadre. The coefficient signs for both government killed and civilians killed
are negative but the standard errors reduce their statistical significance below the p<.10
threshold of reporting. In municipalities located between 50-100 kilometers from MILF
bases, elite led indigenous detachments weakly predict a substantive boost in rebel
conflict deaths with a coefficient increase of .207 nearly three times the coefficient for
value for total indigenous detachments. In this test the presence of elite cadres have no
significant affect on conflict deaths in the 702 municipalities with a communist presence
or the 464 municipalities with at least one village assessed at the highest level of
communist influence.
Figure 28 - Baseline + Indig. Det’s Varying Proximity to Rebel Control Centers
50km >MILF Base
50-100km MILF Base
govtkia
rebelkia civkilled govtkia
rebelkia civkilled
Indigenous
Detachment
.119**
*
.073**
.047*
.094**
*
.074**
.030
Indig Det
w/SF Cadre -.086
.451**
*
-.156
-.031
.207*
-.051
N:
314
314
314
382
382
382
Affected CTM Villages>0
Infiltrated CTM Villages>0
govtkia
rebelkia civkilled govtkia
rebelkia civkilled
Indigenous
Detachment .051**
.039
.041
.066**
.059
.049*
Indig Det
w/SF Cadre .070
.028
-.207
.079
.067
-.263
N:
702
702
702
464
464
464
These tests indicate that my theory on the additive boost provided by elite cadres may
apply to certain rebel groups more than others. Controlling for proximity to rebel centers
39
Convention