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economic interests to have an effect, though. The analysis that follows will consider both
the impact of individual self-interest and the more diffuse effect of the local economy.
Modeling the Influence of Economic Interests on Foreign Policy Opinion
A simple model regressing variables representing individual self-interest and
regional differences in the effects of the international economy onto foreign policy
opinion would not adequately represent the relationships suggested in the last section.
Such a model would underestimate the total effect of the international economy because
local integration into the international economy influences the probability of observing
particular individual characteristics. For example, export-oriented parts of the country
should contain more educated people, because these individuals will find more economic
opportunities there. If so, part of the effect of education in the model is really the indirect
influence of export-orientation. The coefficient on an export-orientation variable in the
regression equation would represent only its direct effect, not its total effect. In order to
capture both the total effect of regional aggregate economic interests, it is necessary to
model not only foreign policy opinion, but also the demographic characteristics of the
sample.
Figure 1 depicts these relationships in a stylized way. A single-equation model of
foreign policy opinion would estimate the direct effects in paths 2 and 3, which can be
understood in terms of individual self-interest and the economic dimension of regional
political culture, respectively. Path 1 represents the impact of the international economy
on the probability of sampling individuals whose self-interest predisposes them to hold
particular foreign policy opinions. In this simplified example, the underlying
relationships can be represented by the following two-equation model.
Convention