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Decision Markets for Policy Advice |
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Abstract:
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This chapter examines the uses and limitations of decision markets. Decision markets are information markets designed to inform a particular policy decision, by directly estimating relevant consequences of that decision. After reviewing the weaknesses of existing institutions, the mechanics of decision markets, and a concrete example, the chapter reviews the requirements, advantages, and disadvantages of decision markets. The chapter also takes a close look at a particular application of this tool—the controversial yet illuminating attempt to establish a “Policy Analysis Market” to forecast the consequences of major policy U.S. choices in the Middle East. |
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market (210), decis (93), inform (90), polici (68), price (67), would (56), trade (51), estim (42), public (38), specul (35), pam (33), enough (31), one (31), trader (31), cost (30), might (29), govern (29), peopl (27), could (27), u.s (27), may (27), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association
URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Hanson, Robin. "Decision Markets for Policy Advice" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 31, 2006 <Not Available>. 2011-03-13 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p151736_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Hanson, R. D. , 2006-08-31 "Decision Markets for Policy Advice" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-03-13 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p151736_index.html |
Publication Type: Proceeding
Abstract: This chapter examines the uses and limitations of decision markets. Decision markets are information markets designed to inform a particular policy decision, by directly estimating relevant consequences of that decision. After reviewing the weaknesses of existing institutions, the mechanics of decision markets, and a concrete example, the chapter reviews the requirements, advantages, and disadvantages of decision markets. The chapter also takes a close look at a particular application of this tool—the controversial yet illuminating attempt to establish a “Policy Analysis Market” to forecast the consequences of major policy U.S. choices in the Middle East. |
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| Document Type: |
application/pdf |
| Page count: |
27 |
| Word count: |
9558 |
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| To appear in Alan S. Gerber and Eric M. Patashnik eds. Promoting the General Welfare: New Perspectives on Government Performance Brookings Institution Press November 2006. Chapter 7 Decision Markets for Policy Advice Robin Hanson The main cause of bad policy decisions is arguably a lack of information. Decisionmakers often do not make use of relevant information about the consequences of the policies they choose. The problem however is not simply that public officials do not exploit readily available information. |
| Mason University Department of Economics February 2005 http://hanson.gmu.edu/testcomb.pdf last accessed July 2006 29. Ron Wyden and Byron Dorgan “Wyden Dorgan Call for Immediate Halt to Tax-Funded `Terror Market’ Scheme ” July 28 2003 (http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html last accessed July 2006). 30. Michele Norris and David Welna “Reaction to Pentagon's Proposed Terror Futures Market ” All Things Considered National Public Radio (9 p.m. July 29 2003). 31. Philip E. Tetlock and others “The Psychology of the Unthinkable: Taboo Trade-offs Forbidden Base Rates |
Similar Titles:
Information Politics, Environmental Politics, and Public Policy: Toward a Political Economy of Information
The Impact of Political Ideology and Government Structure on Information Technology Policy: A Comparison of Technologically Sophisticated Countries with Differing Types of Governments
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