Alliances have also been linked to increased hostilities within strategic rivalries.
However, the depth and scope of military alliances have been on the decline since the end
of the cold war, replaced with economic agreements such as preferential trade agreements
(often with security components) or currency unions. This is again in sharp contrast to the
world system in which the Anglo-German rivalry took place. Bismarck set up cross-
cutting alliances – to the exclusion of France – that often entailed contradictory
international commitments with the goal of diluting power (Pape 2005: 38). In contrast,
alliances today are much more transparent and instead of dissolving power among the
great powers, for the most part power is consolidated via NATO. And while trade
agreements do reflect a hub-and-spoke system, it is often viewed as a stepping stone
toward global integration. Among the alliances that do exist in the Pacific, US-Australia-
Japan ties do lead to concerns with China of encirclement, as do increased bilateral
security cooperation with the US. However, instead of searching to form its own
alliances, as occurred in previous eras, China responded through the cultivation of
‘partnerships’ with the region’s major states (Goldstein 2001: 841).
The rivalry literature often discusses the tumultuous period that can characterize
power transitions between major powers. While power transition theory (Tammen et al
2000) points to the role of whether the rising power is a satisfied, status quo-oriented
power or dissatisfied, revisionist power, leadership long cycle theory stresses proximity,
strategic orientation, and threat/frustration perception (Rapkin and Thompson 2003).
Both theories shed light on what to expect from escalating rivalries. In the case of the
US-Chinese economic rivalry, globalization again provides constraints that were absent
from previous eras.
First, China currently appears to be making concerted efforts to
become an active member of the international community. China has not pursued policies
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