I. Introduction
The demise of the cold war and rising levels of integration have left many
debating whether military conflicts among the major powers will be replaced with
economic conflict and competition over vital markets. While conventional military
conflicts among the great powers have become virtually unthinkable, their substitute,
trade wars and economic conflict, have been on the rise (James 2001: 203). With China’s
population expected to peak at 1.5 billion in 2030 (Bijan 2005: 19), and with an average
economic growth rate at 10% over the last decade, scholars and government officials
alike hypothesize whether China will be a status quo or revisionist rising power.
Economic friction has emerged between the US and China – arguably the most influential
interstate relationship of modern times – over a variety of issues ranging from trade
imbalances to currency manipulation to anti-dumping tariffs. With bilateral trade topping
over $285 billion in 2005, these economic conflicts have profound consequences for the
global economy as a whole. Will these economic conflicts push China toward seeking
revisionist aims, and subsequently disintegrate the relationship into militarized conflict,
as has happened to numerous economic rivalries of the past? Or will characteristics
unique to modern globalization constrain US-China relations and prevent the escalation
to war? I utilize trends from economic rivalries of the past and research on strategic
rivalries, coupled with a variety of international constraints inherent within the modern
era in order to explore current and future US-China relations. In short, while it would be
overly simplistic to presume militarized conflict is obsolete within this rivalry, there is
reason for cautious optimism regarding the future of US-China economic and diplomatic
relations.
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Convention