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Table 10: The Effect of a Valence Advantage (Perceptions of Competence) on U.S. Senate
Incumbents’ Margins of Victory and Likelihoods of Winning, 2000 and 2002
Independent Variables
Model 1 (Linear):
Dep. Var.: Margin of
Victory (Loss) in General
Election (%)
Coefficient (s.e.)
Model 2 (Logit):
Dep. Var.: Won = 1;
0 = Lost
Coefficient (s.e.)
Valence Advantage:
Competence of Senator
-0.697 (14.082)
-0.236 (5.770)
Deviation of Senator From
Constituency Median
(Absolute Value)
2.112 (6.483)
-3.312 (2.460)*
Freshman Senator
-3.779 (4.395)
-1.327 (2.033)
Quality Challenger in
General Election
-14.872 (5.148)***
-0.826 (1.279)
ln(challenger spending) –
ln(incumbent spending)
-3.352 (0.473)***
-2.271 (1.048)**
State Vote for Presidential
Candidate of
Incumbent’s Party (%)
0.592 (0.236)***
0.016 (0.078)
Constant
-9.037 (15.376)
3.182 (6.011)
R
2
0.67
N
52
52
*p<0.10; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01; 1-tailed tests for the following variables: Valence Advantage (+), Deviation of
Senator from Constituency (-), Quality Challenger (-), challenger – incumbent spending (-), state vote for
presidential candidate of incumbent’s party (+). 2-tailed test for the freshman senator variable. Both equations are
estimated with robust standard errors.
Convention