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Gauging Presidential Leadership: What He Says, and How He Says It
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Gauging Presidential Leadership:
What He Says, and How He Says It
William Cunion
Mount Union College
Do presidents lead or follow public opinion? In this paper, I argue for a new approach to answer the question: a content analysis of presidential speeches, coding for a number of rhetorical features that should occur more frequently when the president perceives that public opinion may be difficult. To establish the validity of this method, I examine two cases from the Clinton Presidency in which the political context is well known. In the first, we see his efforts to lead the public by retreating from a key campaign promise of a tax cut for the middle class in the interest of deficit reduction. Two years later, Clinton followed the public, offering the “Middle Class Bill of Rights,” which promised an array of benefits to ordinary Americans. As predicted, Clinton’s rhetoric matched expectations – when he needed to lead, he used rhetorical techniques appropriate to do so, and when he did not need to lead, he did not speak in leading ways. The unorthodox method being advanced here is conceptually satisfying and methodologically promising, offering opportunities for new insight into the public presidency.
Prepared for delivery at the 2006 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August 30th-September 3, 2006. Copyright by the American Political Science Association.
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| | Authors: Cunion, William. |
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Gauging Presidential Leadership:
What He Says, and How He Says It
William Cunion
Mount Union College
Do presidents lead or follow public opinion? In this paper, I argue for a new approach to
answer the question: a content analysis of presidential speeches, coding for a number of
rhetorical features that should occur more frequently when the president perceives that
public opinion may be difficult. To establish the validity of this method, I examine two
cases from the Clinton Presidency in which the political context is well known. In the
first, we see his efforts to lead the public by retreating from a key campaign promise of a
tax cut for the middle class in the interest of deficit reduction. Two years later, Clinton
followed the public, offering the “Middle Class Bill of Rights,” which promised an array
of benefits to ordinary Americans. As predicted, Clinton’s rhetoric matched expectations
– when he needed to lead, he used rhetorical techniques appropriate to do so, and when
he did not need to lead, he did not speak in leading ways. The unorthodox method being
advanced here is conceptually satisfying and methodologically promising, offering
opportunities for new insight into the public presidency.
Prepared for delivery at the 2006 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
August 30th-September 3, 2006. Copyright by the American Political Science Association.
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