Polls are useful snapshots of public opinion, which may be adequate for many
issues. But in a situation like this one, the relationship between the president and the
public may be beyond what polls can reliably provide. Simply equating polls with public
opinion itself may miss the important process of opinion formation and development.
To put it differently, individual attitudes about an issue are not always fixed in an issue
space just waiting to be “located” by the right poll question. Thus, when a respondent
answers in September that she would support the President, but would like to see U.N.
and congressional involvement, her answer may not be dishonest, but it is probably
extremely soft.
The alternative approach I am proposing here focuses on the content of what the
president says, coding for rhetorical features that will be more likely to occur when the
president perceives that public opinion may be difficult. Importantly, that can occur even
when the polls currently indicate that the President has support – as in the Bush case. In
his October speech, Bush very openly acknowledged doubts and fears about going to
war: “Many Americans have raised legitimate questions about the nature of the threat,
about the urgency of action…”; “Some citizens wonder, after 11 years of living with this
problem, why do we need to confront it now?” He also recognized some of the
arguments from the opposition (for the purpose of responding to them): “Some have
argued that confronting the threat from Iraq could detract from the war against terror…”;
“Some believe we can address this danger by simply resuming the old approach to
inspections and applying diplomatic and economic pressure…”; “Some have argued we
should wait…” Additionally, he made clear appeals to moral obligation: “We did not ask
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There are other conceptual issues, as well. Among them, presidents may feel the need to try to secure
large majorities – far beyond 50% - to support some kinds of policies. War may be one of those issues;
Bush may have felt that he needed the active support of large majorities, including perhaps majorities of
Independents and Democrats, in order to pursue such a radical and historic action like invading Iraq.
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Convention