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Judging Political Promotion of Judges: Survival Analysis, Split Population Model and Matching Method

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Abstract:

Ramseyer and Rasmusen (2003) argue that a judge who once belonged to a leftist group takes longer to reach a moderately prestigious administrative status, and that Japanese judges are conservatively biased. Their findings are, however, dependent on the assumption that they observe or completely estimate the timing of promotion for all judges, which is not correct. In an attempt to deal with the issues of censoring and time dependence, we apply survival analysis to the data set of judicial careers, which provides us with a methodological challenge to solve simultaneously the problems of left truncation and split population. Moreover, we propose a way to estimate an average treatment effect on duration time and to perform matching to reduce model dependence of our analysis. A most important finding is that leftist judges are less likely to be on the track to a prestigious post, but once they are on the track, they are not discriminated in terms of the timing of promotion.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

judg (134), dcj (79), time (68), 1 (58), data (55), yjl (51), match (44), analysi (43), model (42), post (41), surviv (38), court (34), estim (31), observ (30), judici (29), rasmusen (29), ramsey (29), 0 (28), non (28), set (26), ti (25),

Author's Keywords:

Survival Analysis, Split Population, Matching Method, Japan, Judge, Judiciary, left truncation
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

Fukumoto, Kentaro. "Judging Political Promotion of Judges: Survival Analysis, Split Population Model and Matching Method" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 31, 2006 <Not Available>. 2011-03-13 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p151968_index.html>

APA Citation:

Fukumoto, K. , 2006-08-31 "Judging Political Promotion of Judges: Survival Analysis, Split Population Model and Matching Method" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-03-13 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p151968_index.html

Publication Type: Proceeding
Abstract: Ramseyer and Rasmusen (2003) argue that a judge who once belonged to a leftist group takes longer to reach a moderately prestigious administrative status, and that Japanese judges are conservatively biased. Their findings are, however, dependent on the assumption that they observe or completely estimate the timing of promotion for all judges, which is not correct. In an attempt to deal with the issues of censoring and time dependence, we apply survival analysis to the data set of judicial careers, which provides us with a methodological challenge to solve simultaneously the problems of left truncation and split population. Moreover, we propose a way to estimate an average treatment effect on duration time and to perform matching to reduce model dependence of our analysis. A most important finding is that leftist judges are less likely to be on the track to a prestigious post, but once they are on the track, they are not discriminated in terms of the timing of promotion.

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Associated Document Available American Political Science Association

Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 24
Word count: 6448
Text sample:
Judging Political Promotion of Judges: Survival Analysis Split Population Model and Matching Method Kentaro Fukumoto* and Mikitaka Masuyama** Prepared for delivery at the 2006 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Philadelphia August 31–September 3 2006. ABSTRACT Ramseyer and Rasmusen (2003) argue that a judge who once belonged to a leftist group takes longer to reach a moderately prestigious administrative status and that Japanese judges are conservatively biased. Their findings are however dependent on the assumption that they
Kyaria no Seizon Bunseki.” Seikei Hogaku. 61:411-456. Nihon Minshu Horituka Kyokai Shiho Seido Iinkai. 1998. Zensaibankan Keireki Soran: 3rd ed. Tokyo: Kojinsha. Ramseyer Mark and Eric Rasmusen. 1997. “Judicial Independence in a Civil Law Regime: The Evidence from Japan.” Journal of Law Economics and Organization 13: 259-286. Ramseyer Mark and Eric Rasmusen. 2001. “Why Are Japanese Judges So Conservative in Politically Charged Cases?” American Political Science Review 95: 331-344. Ramseyer Mark and Eric Rasmusen. 2003. Measuring Judicial Independence: The


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