9
Helmke’s core evidence is so far restricted to a single case –Argentina and the
Argentinean Supreme Court- analyzed in a time range where political regimes of different nature
took place: the authoritarian military government of 1976-1983, the Alfonsin democratic
government of 1983-1989 and the popularly elected Peronista government of Menem (1989-
2000). Nevertheless, although Argentina could be a textbook case of the theory, there is far from
sufficient evidence to declare that Helmke’s framework apply elsewhere. Given the lack of
verification with respect to other polities, it is still early to rely on Helmke’s arguments as a
general theory. Its applicability in the rest of Latin America, or in other countries elsewhere
with unstable political environments cannot be asserted, unless we test it in alternative venues.
Until we develop a more general notion of the ‘Strategic Defection’ theory at a comparative
level, it will be impossible to understand the theory’s leverage, and limitations. The need for
such a test has been recognized by Helmke herself, and potential guidelines to choose cases for
potential studies have been duly provided. To Helmke, the key is to select judiciaries in
countries with “institutionally insecure environments” ( 2005, 159). She suggests that Venezuela
displayed such conditions during the early Hugo Chavez’s government (ibid., pp. 159-62),
whereas Mexico did so in the post-PRI transition (ibid., pp. 165-68). Conversely, she rejects the
notion that the theory is useful in Chile, because in this country judges are presumably insulated
from political sanctions (ibid., pp. 162-165).
1
1
Two examples are briefly analyzed by Helmke; Venezuela and Mexico. With respect to Venezuela, we
provide a brief case-study introduction below. With respect to Mexico, analyses about the development of
judicial independence in this country have offered key insights (See Domingo, 2000; Finkel, 2003 & 2004,
among others). In particular, Rios-Figueroa’s approach (forthcoming, 2007), looks into the transition to the
rigid PRI one-party domination to the current consolidating democratic system in this country.
Convention