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Uncertainty and Black Voter Enfranchisement: Senators’ Inconsistent Voting Records in the U.S. South, 1951-2004
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Uncertainty and Black Voter Enfranchisement:
Senators’ Inconsistent Voting Records in the U.S. South, 1951-2004
Christian R. Grose
Vanderbilt University
Department of Political Science
VU Station B#351817
313 Calhoun Hall
Nashville, TN 37235-1817
Antoine Yoshinaka
Department of Political Science
2217 Watkins Hall
University of California, Riverside
Riverside, CA 92521
Abstract: Can inconsistency in legislators’ voting records be explained by the uncertainty they have about their constituency? Why does a two-dimensional model of roll-call voting explain the votes of some legislators better than others? In this paper, we present an uncertainty-based theory of legislative voting and inconsistency. We test this theory by examining whether U.S. senators’ uncertainty about their constituency leads to higher levels of inconsistent voting in Congress. Specifically we compare southern senators who faced a large influx of black voters in the 1960s and 1970s with southern senators from more stable constituencies. We also examine other factors that can cause legislator uncertainty, such as legislators’ backgrounds. Our results suggest that what some call “maverick” behavior by legislators can be better characterized as best responses by incumbents to a changing environment. __________________
We would like to thank Jennifer Jensen, Jeff Lazarus, Bruce Oppenheimer, Jesse Richman, Dave Rohde, and Harold Stanley for comments; and we would like to thank Anthony Bertelli and Jamie Carson for sparking interest in this topic. We would also like to thank Jeremiah Garretson and Frank Wilson for research assistance.
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| | Authors: Grose, Christian. and Yoshinaka, Antoine. |
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Uncertainty and Black Voter Enfranchisement:
Senators’ Inconsistent Voting Records in the U.S. South, 1951-2004
Christian R. Grose
Vanderbilt University
Department of Political Science
VU Station B#351817
313 Calhoun Hall
Nashville, TN 37235-1817
Antoine Yoshinaka
Department of Political Science
2217 Watkins Hall
University of California, Riverside
Riverside, CA 92521
Abstract:
Can inconsistency in legislators’ voting records be explained by the uncertainty they have about
their constituency? Why does a two-dimensional model of roll-call voting explain the votes of
some legislators better than others? In this paper, we present an uncertainty-based theory of
legislative voting and inconsistency. We test this theory by examining whether U.S. senators’
uncertainty about their constituency leads to higher levels of inconsistent voting in Congress.
Specifically we compare southern senators who faced a large influx of black voters in the 1960s
and 1970s with southern senators from more stable constituencies. We also examine other
factors that can cause legislator uncertainty, such as legislators’ backgrounds. Our results
suggest that what some call “maverick” behavior by legislators can be better characterized as
best responses by incumbents to a changing environment.
__________________
We would like to thank Jennifer Jensen, Jeff Lazarus, Bruce Oppenheimer, Jesse Richman, Dave Rohde, and Harold
Stanley for comments; and we would like to thank Anthony Bertelli and Jamie Carson for sparking interest in this
topic. We would also like to thank Jeremiah Garretson and Frank Wilson for research assistance.
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