8
elites.
4
Contradictory responses or an absence of the awareness of cues regarding the two
propositions of interest enable me to assess the impact of the various types of confusion
on vote choice. Several assumptions are made for the operationalization and
classification of these concepts. First, being aware of the elite support or opposition of
the proposition and believing that each elite either represents ‘people like you’ or ‘special
interests’ is treated equally. For example, if the voter believes that Arnold
Schwarzenegger and Labor Unions both represent ‘people like you’, and Schwarzenegger
supports Proposition 74 and the unions oppose it, the influences of each of the elites is
treated as equivalent. Even though in actuality, people may weight the endorsements of
some elites more than others, due to limitations in the data, it is not possible to directly
account for this possibility. Second, these categorizations of confusion are not mutually
exclusive, so voters can be ‘confused’ because of bad cues, contradictory consensus cues
and/or competing cues.
For both Proposition 74 and Proposition 75, confusion is operationalized to
account for the four types of confusion discussed above: contradictory consensus cues
and competing cues (ambivalence), as well as, bad cues and absent cues (uncertainty).
The next section details the operationalization of the four forms of confusion. Later
sections discuss the effect that confusion has on the likelihood of voting for each ballot
initiative and the individual effects that confusion have on vote choice.
4
The complete questionnaire used for the survey is available in the Appendix. Which of the propositions
do you believe was supported by Arnold Schwarzenegger? Which of the propositions do you believe was
supported by unions? Which of the propositions do you believe was opposed by unions? Which of the
propositions was opposed by teachers? Who do you believe Arnold Schwarzenegger represents: ‘people
like you’ or ‘special interests’? Who do you believe labor unions represent: ‘people like you’ or ‘special
interests’? Who do you believe teachers represent: ‘people like you’ or ‘special interests’?
Convention