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Campaign Strength: Addressing the Measurement Problem in the Ability of Incumbents to Deter Strong Challengers through Pork Barreling |
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Abstract:
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Does pork barreling allow incumbents to prevent the emergence of quality challengers? One of the difficulties inherent in answering this question is that ineffectively measuring quality can bias the effects of distributive spending on election outcomes downward, as noted by Levitt and Snyder (1997). Paradoxically, increases in distributive spending may not be closely linked with the most common measure of quality, electoral experience. I address this problem by rephrasing the question and examining whether distributive spending can cause the challenger’s campaign to be weaker (less popular and have fewer resources at its disposal). To do this, I have created a measure of campaign strength that is a departure from the traditional notions of candidate quality. This measure has stronger predictive power than the use of just electoral experience (although there is a heavy cost to using the measure to predict election outcomes—endogeneity) and distributive spending is shown to have a significant effect on campaign strength. Using the electoral experience measure, however, we would have to conclude that incumbents are not able to deter a strong challenge through the use of distributive benefits, which is a clear misstatement of the benefits distributive spending can give to incumbents. |
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incumb (141), challeng (126), measur (119), campaign (99), elect (94), program (84), use (79), spend (73), model (68), vote (61), benefit (61), elector (58), qualiti (55), experi (52), includ (47), variabl (44), strength (44), share (41), effect (40), district (39), new (38), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Sidman, Andrew. "Campaign Strength: Addressing the Measurement Problem in the Ability of Incumbents to Deter Strong Challengers through Pork Barreling" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 31, 2006 <Not Available>. 2011-03-13 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p152324_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Sidman, A. H. , 2006-08-31 "Campaign Strength: Addressing the Measurement Problem in the Ability of Incumbents to Deter Strong Challengers through Pork Barreling" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-03-13 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p152324_index.html |
Publication Type: Proceeding Abstract: Does pork barreling allow incumbents to prevent the emergence of quality challengers? One of the difficulties inherent in answering this question is that ineffectively measuring quality can bias the effects of distributive spending on election outcomes downward, as noted by Levitt and Snyder (1997). Paradoxically, increases in distributive spending may not be closely linked with the most common measure of quality, electoral experience. I address this problem by rephrasing the question and examining whether distributive spending can cause the challenger’s campaign to be weaker (less popular and have fewer resources at its disposal). To do this, I have created a measure of campaign strength that is a departure from the traditional notions of candidate quality. This measure has stronger predictive power than the use of just electoral experience (although there is a heavy cost to using the measure to predict election outcomes—endogeneity) and distributive spending is shown to have a significant effect on campaign strength. Using the electoral experience measure, however, we would have to conclude that incumbents are not able to deter a strong challenge through the use of distributive benefits, which is a clear misstatement of the benefits distributive spending can give to incumbents. |
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| Campaign Strength: Addressing the Measurement Problem in the Ability of Incumbents to Deter Strong Challengers through Pork Barreling Andrew H. Sidman Department of Political Science Stony Brook University Stony Brook NY 11794-4392 asidman@ic.sunysb.edu http://www.sinc.sunysb.edu/Stu/asidman/ Abstract Does pork barreling allow incumbents to prevent the emergence of quality challengers? One of the difficulties inherent in answering this question is that ineffectively measuring quality can bias the effects of distributive spending on election outcomes downward as noted by Levitt and Snyder (1997). |
| 0.18 0.13 0.19 Maximum (100%) 0.08 0.05 0.08 Ideological Extremity Minimum (0.001) 0.31 0.24 0.32 Mean (0.427) 0.18 0.13 0.19 Maximum (1.338) 0.04 0.03 0.05 Note: Predicted probabilities were calculated holding the log of spending on new programs the log of incumbent beginning cash and the log of incumbent spending in the previous election at their mean levels. Freshman is set at its median zero. The year dummies are set at the appropriate values for obtaining predicted probabilities for |
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