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39
Table 6. Predicted Probability of the Emergence of an
Experienced Challenger
Incumbent Vote Share (t-1)
2000
2002
2004
Minimum (0%)
0.61
0.53
0.63
Mean (64.57%)
0.18
0.13
0.19
Maximum (100%)
0.08
0.05
0.08
Ideological Extremity
Minimum (0.001)
0.31
0.24
0.32
Mean (0.427)
0.18
0.13
0.19
Maximum (1.338)
0.04
0.03
0.05
Note: Predicted probabilities were calculated holding the log of spending on new
programs, the log of incumbent beginning cash, and the log of incumbent spending
in the previous election at their mean levels. Freshman is set at its median, zero.
The year dummies are set at the appropriate values for obtaining predicted
probabilities for a given election.
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