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Was Iraq a Threat to International Peace and Security? Methodological Insights to Explore the Question
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| | Unformatted Document Text:
W
AS
I
RAQ A
T
HREAT TO
I
NTERNATIONAL
P
EACE AND
S
ECURITY
?
M
ETHODOLOGICAL
I
NSIGHTS TO
E
XPLORE THE
Q
UESTION
Paper prepared for presentation at the 2006 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, August 30-September 4, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Laura Sjoberg, Ph.D.
Visiting Assistant Professor
Duke University
Department of Political Science
## email not listed ##
Christopher Marcoux
Ph.D. Candidate
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Department of Political Science
## email not listed ##
This paper is an incredibly rough draft prepared for presentation at APSA. Comments are welcome, but please do not cite without permission.
Can we measure compliance with the demands on which economic sanctions on Iraq were conditioned with rigor and precision? We argue that it is possible, but only with a combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches to the study of compliance. This paper uses structured, focused comparison of cases to guide the construction of a spatial model for the study of sanctions compliance. It then uses that spatial model to examine the patterns of compliance that Iraq exhibited with the demands of the United Nations Security Council economic sanctions regime in the 1990s. We argue that a multi-method approach allows scholars to compare relative partial compliance in an innovative way. The sharpness that this methodological innovation brings to the study of compliance, we argue, provides deeper insight into the political relationship between sanctioner and sanctioned than current work on sanctions is able to provide.
Our model is uniquely able to demonstrate that Iraq’s relative partial compliance
increased through the early and mid -1990s, decreased in the late 1990s, and increased again in the months following the September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States. We conclude by formulating hypotheses concerning the reason behind these policy shifts on the part of the Iraqi government, which provide insight into the question of whether Iraq was the ‘threat to international peace and security’ that the United States claimed in its petition for Security Council aid in the invasion.
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| | Authors: Sjoberg, Laura. and Marcoux, Christopher. |
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W
AS
I
RAQ A
T
HREAT TO
I
NTERNATIONAL
P
EACE AND
S
ECURITY
?
M
ETHODOLOGICAL
I
NSIGHTS TO
E
XPLORE THE
Q
UESTION
Paper prepared for presentation at the 2006 annual meeting of the American
Political Science Association, August 30-September 4, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Laura Sjoberg, Ph.D.
Visiting Assistant Professor
Duke University
Department of Political Science
## email not listed ##
Christopher Marcoux
Ph.D. Candidate
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Department of Political Science
## email not listed ##
This paper is an incredibly rough draft prepared for presentation at APSA.
Comments are welcome, but please do not cite without permission.
Can we measure compliance with the demands on which economic sanctions on Iraq were
conditioned with rigor and precision? We argue that it is possible, but only with a combination of
quantitative and qualitative approaches to the study of compliance. This paper uses structured,
focused comparison of cases to guide the construction of a spatial model for the study of sanctions
compliance. It then uses that spatial model to examine the patterns of compliance that Iraq
exhibited with the demands of the United Nations Security Council economic sanctions regime in
the 1990s. We argue that a multi-method approach allows scholars to compare relative partial
compliance in an innovative way. The sharpness that this methodological innovation brings to the
study of compliance, we argue, provides deeper insight into the political relationship between
sanctioner and sanctioned than current work on sanctions is able to provide.
Our model is uniquely able to demonstrate that Iraq’s relative partial compliance
increased through the early and mid -1990s, decreased in the late 1990s, and increased again in the
months following the September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States. We conclude by
formulating hypotheses concerning the reason behind these policy shifts on the part of the Iraqi
government, which provide insight into the question of whether Iraq was the ‘threat to
international peace and security’ that the United States claimed in its petition for Security Council
aid in the invasion.
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