“SECOND IMAGE REVERSED” REEXAMINED
ABSTRACT
The literature of “second image reversed,” which studies international factors causing domestic
outcomes, is central to the contemporary scholarship of international politics, and it has been
long associated with Peter Gourevitch’s 1978 International Organization article. Methodologic-
al re-examinations of this “modern classic” article reveal three critical and surprising shortcom-
ings. First, only two (out of nine) “second image reversed” arguments posited by Gourevitch are
sound in terms of causal logic and empirical verifiability. These two arguments include the
“Gerschenkronian thesis” and the “Seeley-Hintze law.” Second, a careful scrutiny reveals that
the Gerschenkronian thesis suffers from the problem of selection bias so that there may be a true
causal variable at the domestic level. Third, the same set of serious problems can be detected
with the Seeley-Hintze law. In sum, the foundational works of the “second image reversed” lit-
erature are not as methodologically sound, robust, and compelling as we have long assumed.
I. INTRODUCTION
In 1978, Peter Gourevitch published a highly influential article entitled “Second Image
Reversed: The International Sources of Domestic Politics” in International Organization. Earli-
er, Kenneth Waltz (1959) had coined the term of “second image” referring to explanations that
isolate domestic causes of international outcomes.
As the title of the article indicates, Goure-
vitch focuses on those explanations in which the international system affects the domestic sys-
tem. After the publication of this article, the term of “second image reversed” became standard
terminology in the fields of international politics and comparative politics. It is now quite com-
mon to see his article listed as required reading material in a typical syllabus of international re-
lations theory.
Even if we limit our scope to the last ten years, we notice many scholarly works that em-
ploy second-image-reversed arguments.
In the field of comparative politics, for example, Jon
Pevehouse builds upon a second-image-reversed argument when he analyzes the process of
democratization in his 2005 book entitled Democracy from Above: Regional Organizations and
Democratization.
Another is Shaped by War and Trade: International Influences on American
Political Development, edited by Ira Katznelson and Martin Shefter.
In the field of international
1
The “first image” isolates individual-level causal factors, while the “third image” isolates causal factors at the level
of the international system.
2
For earlier relevant works, see Almond (1989).
3
Cambridge University Press. See also Pevehouse (2002).
4
Princeton University Press, 2002.
2
Convention