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Calculated Evaluations or Wishful Thinking?: General Election "Electability" and Presidential Nominations
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Title change form Original Program
Progressive Ambition and Presidential Nominations, 1972-2004
Randall E. Adkins
Department of Political ScienceUniversity of Nebraska, Omaha
Omaha, NE 68182
402.554.3617
## email not listed ##
Andrew J. Dowdle
Department of Political Science
University of Arkansas
Fayetteville, AR 72704
479.575.6445
## email not listed ##
Wayne P. Steger
Department of Political Science
DePaul University
Chicago, IL 60604
773.325.4240
## email not listed ##
ABSTRACT
Since Schlesinger’s (1966) groundbreaking book on political ambition many scholars have examined progressive ambition from a variety of perspectives, but only three studies focused on presidential ambition (Peabody, Ornstein, and Rohde 1976; and Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde 1987; Burden 2002). Building upon the work of previous studies that examined the effect of the costs, benefits, and liabilities of the decision calculus, we examine the effect of contextual factors such as pre-primary poll results and the popularity of the opposition party president. Further, we examine differences in the opportunity structure of Democrats and Republicans and governors and senators.
Review results and elaborate. Candidates appear to weight most heavily their chances of winning the nomination in deciding whether to run. Risk-taking is a significant factor for only Democratic senators. We attribute this difference to a Republican presidential campaign dynamics that discourages risk-taking, whereas the uncertainties of Democratic races encourage this behavior.
Please e-mail Andrew Dowdle for a copy
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| | Authors: Adkins, Randall., Dowdle, Andrew. and Steger, Wayne. |
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Title change form Original Program
Progressive Ambition and Presidential Nominations, 1972-2004
Randall E. Adkins
Department of Political Science
University of Nebraska, Omaha
Omaha, NE 68182
402.554.3617
## email not listed ##
Andrew J. Dowdle
Department of Political Science
University of Arkansas
Fayetteville, AR 72704
479.575.6445
## email not listed ##
Wayne P. Steger
Department of Political Science
DePaul University
Chicago, IL 60604
773.325.4240
## email not listed ##
ABSTRACT
Since Schlesinger’s (1966) groundbreaking book on political ambition many scholars
have examined progressive ambition from a variety of perspectives, but only three studies
focused on presidential ambition (Peabody, Ornstein, and Rohde 1976; and Abramson,
Aldrich, and Rohde 1987; Burden 2002). Building upon the work of previous studies that
examined the effect of the costs, benefits, and liabilities of the decision calculus, we
examine the effect of contextual factors such as pre-primary poll results and the
popularity of the opposition party president. Further, we examine differences in the
opportunity structure of Democrats and Republicans and governors and senators.
Review results and elaborate. Candidates appear to weight most heavily their chances of
winning the nomination in deciding whether to run. Risk-taking is a significant factor for
only Democratic senators. We attribute this difference to a Republican presidential
campaign dynamics that discourages risk-taking, whereas the uncertainties of Democratic
races encourage this behavior.
Please e-mail Andrew Dowdle for a copy
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