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WMD's and Perceptions of Threat: An Experimental Analysis of Citizen Response to Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological WMD's

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Abstract:

During the pre-war debate about attacking Iraq, the Bush administration advanced dubious claims about Iraq’s nuclear ambitions and capabilities. We suspect that the nuclear threat was exaggerated and added to other WMD claims because it was more effective at eliciting negative emotions about Iraq and creating a greater demand for military action against Iraq. In order to test this hypothesis, we created fake newspaper stories varying the type of threat—nuclear or chemical/biological—posed by a fictitious country or Iran, and embedded these stories in a survey. We compared reactions to WMD threats about countries other than Iraq because studying opinion about pre-war Iraq at this late date would be hopelessly confounded by prior attitudes. Surprisingly, our results do not support the argument that nuclear threats provoke different responses than other types of WMD, but our data raise a red flag about the external validity of studies using hypothetical scenarios involving fictitious countries. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for understanding public support for invading Iraq, likely public reactions to demands for war with Iran, and the validity of data generated using scenarios involving fictitious counties.

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nuclear (98), threat (70), iran (61), iraq (44), biolog (42), weapon (37), would (33), hypothet (32), 1 (30), 2 (27), use (26), wmd (25), utland (24), public (24), 3 (23), articl (21), scenario (21), emot (20), polit (19), question (19), particip (19),
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Greene, Steven., Cobb, Michael. and Boettcher, William. "WMD's and Perceptions of Threat: An Experimental Analysis of Citizen Response to Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological WMD's" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA, Aug 31, 2006 <Not Available>. 2011-03-13 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p153288_index.html>

APA Citation:

Greene, S. , Cobb, M. D. and Boettcher, W. , 2006-08-31 "WMD's and Perceptions of Threat: An Experimental Analysis of Citizen Response to Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological WMD's" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott, Loews Philadelphia, and the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Philadelphia, PA Online <PDF>. 2011-03-13 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p153288_index.html

Publication Type: Proceeding
Abstract: During the pre-war debate about attacking Iraq, the Bush administration advanced dubious claims about Iraq’s nuclear ambitions and capabilities. We suspect that the nuclear threat was exaggerated and added to other WMD claims because it was more effective at eliciting negative emotions about Iraq and creating a greater demand for military action against Iraq. In order to test this hypothesis, we created fake newspaper stories varying the type of threat—nuclear or chemical/biological—posed by a fictitious country or Iran, and embedded these stories in a survey. We compared reactions to WMD threats about countries other than Iraq because studying opinion about pre-war Iraq at this late date would be hopelessly confounded by prior attitudes. Surprisingly, our results do not support the argument that nuclear threats provoke different responses than other types of WMD, but our data raise a red flag about the external validity of studies using hypothetical scenarios involving fictitious countries. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for understanding public support for invading Iraq, likely public reactions to demands for war with Iran, and the validity of data generated using scenarios involving fictitious counties.

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Document Type: PDF
Page count: 30
Word count: 5888
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WMD and Perceptions of Threat: An Experimental Analysis of Citizen Response to Nuclear versus Biological WMD Michael D. Cobb Steven Greene William Boettcher Department of Political Science School of Public and International Affairs North Carolina State University Paper prepared for presentation at the 102nd Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Philadelphia PA. August 31-September 3 2005. Abstract During the pre-war debate about attacking Iraq the Bush administration advanced dubious claims about Iraq’s nuclear ambitions and capabilities. We
documents and information. It called it ''regrettable and a matter of concern'' that Iran has not been more forthcoming after three years of intensive agency verification. The documents make reference to a secretive entity in Iran called the Green Salt Project and seem to suggest that the project established ''administrative interconnections'' between Iran's uranium processing and weapons delivery systems. If accurate the documents would be the first to tie what Iran says is its purely civilian nuclear program to


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