18
challenging dimension to Korea’s potential role as a mediator and will require a great deal of
finesse. While maintaining its alliance with the United States, South Korea will need to nudge
future U.S. administrations from choosing sides too decidedly between China and Japan.
Certainly, the United States will continue its alliance with Japan as a cornerstone of its security
policy in the region. Yet, the more Seoul can encourage the United States to engage China in a
way that promotes a cooperative relationship among all, the less likely regional animosities will
escalate. Crucial to this goal is quietly playing the role of mediator between China, Japan, and
the United States without undermining U.S. alliances with South Korea and Japan. Relations
between these countries must not become an “either or” proposition between allies and
adversaries. The United States has important interests at stake here – conflict in the region can
severely damage these interests as well. Having South Korea do some important ground work
will help maintain peace and stability without weakening the alliance.
For North Korea, its ability to influence the future of Sino-U.S. and Sino-Japanese
relations is more constrained. Pyongyang’s economic ties with these three is relatively small and
actually flows in a direction that makes its economy more vulnerable, particularly given the help
it receives from international food aid, Chinese food and energy assistance, and remittances from
Japan. In the past, North Korea has been a master at manipulating the nuclear crisis for leverage
and possible concessions. However, increasingly, this appears to be a path that will provide few
tangible benefits unless North Korea actually demonstrates a willingness to give up its efforts to
develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Until this occurs, relations with Japan and the
United States will remain poor, particularly if North Korea continues provocative actions such as
the July missile tests. Moreover, the missile tests were a serious blow to Sino-DPRK relations.
Despite China’s warnings and its support of the DPRK, North Korea tested the missiles and
Convention