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Introduction
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Throughout its history, the Korean Peninsula has had the unfortunate geographic destiny
to be located between the regional powers of East Asia. As a result, Korea has often been fought
over or fought through by countries in the region. In the next fifty years, Korea may again be
caught between the struggles of others in Northeast Asia but now, with a difference. In the past,
Korea was united and relatively weak in comparison to China, Japan, Russia, and later, the
United States. Today, the peninsula is divided with North Korea struggling to remain in
existence while South Korea possesses significantly more power than the North and more than a
united Korea had in the past to determine its own fate. Korean security in the next fifty years
will be closely intertwined with the future of two very important bilateral relationships: Sino-
Japanese relations and U.S.-Sino relations. In some ways, North and South Korea will be
bystanders working to position themselves favorably as these relationships unfold. However, in
other respects, the two Koreas may be important players in the future of these bilateral
relationships with some degree of leverage to shape the future of the region. This paper will
examine the present and future course of big power relations in East Asia along with the possible
influence North and South Korea might have on these relationships in order to help ensure peace
and stability in the region while protecting its interests. The remainder of this paper will review
the growing rivalries of China and Japan, and China and the United States followed by a
discussion of implications and possible responses of North and South Korea.
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The views expressed in this article are the authors' alone and do not represent the official position of the
Department of the Navy, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government.
Convention