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This paper explores what we label as religious voting in Portugal and Spain. It aims at disentangling some
puzzles regarding party competition in two countries that exhibit a number of remarkable similarities. To begin
with, Spain and Portugal are both essentially Catholic countries. This should be taken to imply both a particular
configuration of the country’s religious map, as well as the pre-eminence of an influential culture based on
Catholic values and ideas. Also, both countries have seen their politics deeply interwoven with religion at
crucial historical junctures. Paraphrasing Juan Linz’s (1993: 1) dictum, in the 20th century the somewhat
parallel history of religion in Portugal and Spain is certainly full of dramatic events. In both countries, the
outburst of authoritarian ruling in the 1930s was grounded – among on other things – in a deeply entrenched
conflict around clericalism. And, in both, the architects of the new democratic regimes in the 1970s faced a long
list of unresolved religious issues with the potential of shattering the new democratic order into pieces. Lastly,
in both countries the conflict around religious issues seems to be gaining new momentum -- notably, over the
issues of religious education or gay marriage in Spain, or the controversies over abortion and the placing of
crucifixes in public schools in Portugal.
To what extent does a common Catholic culture lead to commonalities in the ways religiosity links up with
political behaviour? After the longest period of democratic policy making in the Iberian Peninsula, and in a
context of a seemingly unstoppable process of secularization, is still religiosity a factor that shapes the electoral
fortunes of major political parties? From the perspective of the relationship between religiosity and party
choice, in what ways are Spain and Portugal different? More generally, in observing the interweaving of
religiosity and political behaviour in two Catholic countries, what are the lessons to be drown for the
understanding of religious voting in European democracies?
We argue that, despite a shared tradition and a common history, the relationship between religiosity and
politics is taking different shapes in Portugal and Spain. The results of a multivariate analysis of postelectoral
survey data in both countries reveals that the strength of the relationship is not even between the two cases: it is
stronger in Spain than in Portugal. Also, we defend that to understand the bearing of religiosity on voting in
Spain, a closer look at the interacting effects between religiosity, ideology, and voting needs to be carried out.
That, however, is not necessary in the case of Portugal, where the effect of religious identities on voting is
apparently not significantly mediated by ideology.
We organise the paper as follows. In the first place, some paradoxes coming from the theoretical treatment
assigned to religion in most standard accounts of voting are considered. If religiosity is on the verge of
disappearing due to the secularisation process, how the persistence of the religious factor in many western
European countries can be explained? Secondly, the religious maps of Spain and Portugal are sketched.
Thirdly, the specification of the model is briefly discussed. Fourthly, the results of the “full” model composed
for the four surveys are examined. This is meant to discuss the magnitude of the direct effects of religiosity on
the vote. Fifthly, we move to the discussion of the indirect effects, considering in this section the bearing of
Convention