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Simulated effects of changes in the precipitation regime on storm runoff and nutrient losses from farm fields in the Great Lakes region

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Abstract:

Increasing population, urban encroachment, and conversions of land for food production into biofuel production may lead to fragile lands moving into crop production and the better farmland becoming less resilient. Potential climate change effects including increased precipitation intensity or more frequent low probability storm events add further stresses. This poses challenges into the future since fragile lands are more susceptible to runoff during major hydrologic events. In a modeling experiment, we examined potential climate change effects on storm runoff and associated nutrient transport from cultivated cropland in the U.S Great Lakes region. Two climate change scenarios covering 4.9 million hectares were simulated for a 40-year period using the APEX model. Scenario E1015 simulates a 10% increase in mean monthly precipitation and a 15% increase in the maximum half-hour precipitation. Scenario E25 simulates a 25% increase in the maximum half-hour precipitation. Compared to a baseline simulation, average annual runoff increases 29% and 42% for E1015 and E25 respectively. Average annual nitrogen losses increase 27% and 37% while phosphorus losses increase 38% and 65%. Investigations indicate fields with the most storm runoff and nutrient losses in the baseline generally have greater than average increases in runoff and nutrient losses in the scenarios. Specific fields designated as “most fragile” shifts somewhat between the simulations. Analysis indicates some lands that are fairly resilient under current conditions become some of the most fragile under a changed precipitation regime. Thus, assessment of conservation needs that do not account for climate change may underestimate the need for conservation practices.
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Name: SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION SOCIETY
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http://www.swcs.org


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URL: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p174123_index.html
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MLA Citation:

Potter, Steven. and Williams, Jimmy. "Simulated effects of changes in the precipitation regime on storm runoff and nutrient losses from farm fields in the Great Lakes region" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION SOCIETY, Saddlebrook Resort, Tampa, Florida, Jul 21, 2007 <Not Available>. 2013-12-15 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p174123_index.html>

APA Citation:

Potter, S. R. and Williams, J. , 2007-07-21 "Simulated effects of changes in the precipitation regime on storm runoff and nutrient losses from farm fields in the Great Lakes region" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION SOCIETY, Saddlebrook Resort, Tampa, Florida <Not Available>. 2013-12-15 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p174123_index.html

Publication Type: Oral Presentation
Abstract: Increasing population, urban encroachment, and conversions of land for food production into biofuel production may lead to fragile lands moving into crop production and the better farmland becoming less resilient. Potential climate change effects including increased precipitation intensity or more frequent low probability storm events add further stresses. This poses challenges into the future since fragile lands are more susceptible to runoff during major hydrologic events. In a modeling experiment, we examined potential climate change effects on storm runoff and associated nutrient transport from cultivated cropland in the U.S Great Lakes region. Two climate change scenarios covering 4.9 million hectares were simulated for a 40-year period using the APEX model. Scenario E1015 simulates a 10% increase in mean monthly precipitation and a 15% increase in the maximum half-hour precipitation. Scenario E25 simulates a 25% increase in the maximum half-hour precipitation. Compared to a baseline simulation, average annual runoff increases 29% and 42% for E1015 and E25 respectively. Average annual nitrogen losses increase 27% and 37% while phosphorus losses increase 38% and 65%. Investigations indicate fields with the most storm runoff and nutrient losses in the baseline generally have greater than average increases in runoff and nutrient losses in the scenarios. Specific fields designated as “most fragile” shifts somewhat between the simulations. Analysis indicates some lands that are fairly resilient under current conditions become some of the most fragile under a changed precipitation regime. Thus, assessment of conservation needs that do not account for climate change may underestimate the need for conservation practices.

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