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Probably Democratic: Probability Theory, Chance, and Democratic Theory

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Abstract:

This paper explores possible alternative uses for the role of luck in theorizing democracy and explores how the potentially fortune friendly use of probability theory in the social sciences has been misrepresented to highlight an imaginary predictability of political life that leads many theorists to shy away from its use.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

chanc (95), theori (83), ration (66), probabl (61), possibl (51), luck (47), univers (45), world (44), human (42), gambl (41), choic (36), way (36), sens (35), one (35), polit (33), concept (33), god (31), game (28), use (28), outcom (28), control (26),

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Democratic Theory, Probability Theory, Rational Choice Theory, Chance, Luck, Fortune
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Name: Midwest Political Science Association
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http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


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MLA Citation:

Peden, Mindy. "Probably Democratic: Probability Theory, Chance, and Democratic Theory" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hotel, Chicago, IL, Apr 12, 2007 <Not Available>. 2013-12-16 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p198084_index.html>

APA Citation:

Peden, M. , 2007-04-12 "Probably Democratic: Probability Theory, Chance, and Democratic Theory" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Palmer House Hotel, Chicago, IL Online <PDF>. 2013-12-16 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p198084_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This paper explores possible alternative uses for the role of luck in theorizing democracy and explores how the potentially fortune friendly use of probability theory in the social sciences has been misrepresented to highlight an imaginary predictability of political life that leads many theorists to shy away from its use.

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Associated Document Available Midwest Political Science Association

Document Type: PDF
Page count: 31
Word count: 9988
Text sample:
Probably Democratic Mindy Peden1 mpeden@jcu.edu John Carroll University Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting Chicago IL 2007 Draft: Comments Welcome Introduction If there are political implications to methodological choices what are they? This paper is about the political implications of one particular methodology: probability theory. More correctly this paper is about how social scientists especially political scientists use probability theory in understanding the actions of human beings. The political consequences of the methodology in question will be confined to
not believe. And he gambled. When it comes to democratic possibility we seem to wager in a similar way; the difference is that we do not always connect the terms of the wager in explicit ways. We tend to bet on democracy as possibility but we fold when we are forced to contemplate the non-deterministic universe. We want to believe that democracy means humans are capable of anything including self government and a reasonable amount of control in the


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