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Voters Like Me: Domestic Migration and Proximity to Shared Ideology

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Abstract:

Is domestic migration a contributing factor in the rise of party polarization at the national level in U.S. politics? Potentially, migration could be powerful enough to reconstitute significant portions of the overall electorate. At the same time, the effects of migration may offset each other, and its magnitude in any given year, and in comparison to postwar years, can seem surprisingly small. In this study, I examine microdata samples from the 2000 U.S. Census and the 2000 National Election Survey, and apply three tests to see if the results are consistent with the thesis that migration tended to homogenize preferences within U.S. congressional districts during the 1990’s. If this thesis holds, migration during this time sorted preferences geographically, rather than dispersing them, and led to more homogeneous constituencies more likely to be dominated by one ideological pole. Specifically, I find a positive and monotonic relationship between growths of congressional districts and support for George Bush in the 2000 presidential election and higher DW-NOMINATE first dimension scores. However, each dataset and the tests applied are constrained by the lack of complete individual level data describing migration and its political consequences.

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migrant (129), migrat (86), district (86), state (69), bush (65), 1 (60), polit (52), sort (50), congression (48), 2 (46), support (45), 2000 (44), growth (41), non (41), prefer (41), individu (35), effect (34), new (33), mean (33), respond (31), puma (31),

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congress polarization geography American Politics
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

McDonald, Ian. "Voters Like Me: Domestic Migration and Proximity to Shared Ideology" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL, Aug 30, 2007 <Not Available>. 2011-06-08 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p210466_index.html>

APA Citation:

McDonald, I. , 2007-08-30 "Voters Like Me: Domestic Migration and Proximity to Shared Ideology" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-06-08 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p210466_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Is domestic migration a contributing factor in the rise of party polarization at the national level in U.S. politics? Potentially, migration could be powerful enough to reconstitute significant portions of the overall electorate. At the same time, the effects of migration may offset each other, and its magnitude in any given year, and in comparison to postwar years, can seem surprisingly small. In this study, I examine microdata samples from the 2000 U.S. Census and the 2000 National Election Survey, and apply three tests to see if the results are consistent with the thesis that migration tended to homogenize preferences within U.S. congressional districts during the 1990’s. If this thesis holds, migration during this time sorted preferences geographically, rather than dispersing them, and led to more homogeneous constituencies more likely to be dominated by one ideological pole. Specifically, I find a positive and monotonic relationship between growths of congressional districts and support for George Bush in the 2000 presidential election and higher DW-NOMINATE first dimension scores. However, each dataset and the tests applied are constrained by the lack of complete individual level data describing migration and its political consequences.

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Associated Document Available American Political Science Association
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Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 38
Word count: 8703
Text sample:
Voters Like Us: Domestic Migration and Geographic Sorting in the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Ian McDonald Duke University Box 90204 Durham NC 27708 Email: ian.mcdonald@duke.edu Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Chicago IL September 1 2007 Abstract: Is domestic migration a contributing factor in the rise of party polarization at the national level in U.S. politics? Potentially migration could be powerful enough to reconstitute significant portions of the overall electorate. At the same time
104 267 Colorado 3 679 020 103 726 Oregon 1 692 399 102 783 Virginia 10 731 109 102 678 Colorado 2 656 148 102 476 Florida 15 680 417 102 112 Delaware At-large 732 378 101 461 South Carolina 2 682 961 101 247 Florida 9 681 833 101 056 Data provided from 2000 U.S. Census at http://www.census.gov/main/www/cen2000.html 38


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