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Biases in Decision Making and their Influence on Counterterrorism Decisions: A Computerized Experiment

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Abstract:

This study set out to evaluate the extent to which decision makers are subject to known biases in foreign policy decision making. Using the Decision Board computerized platform in an experimental setting, we found that high-ranking military officers were likely to employ satisficing strategies en route to choice, had a "preference over preference" bias for a particular alternative by “locking in” to that alternative while ignoring information on other alternatives, and they were not as influenced by framing and certainty effects. The significance of these findings, their relevance to poliheuristic theory, and their policy implications are then discussed.

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decis (108), altern (66), option (50), bias (49), offic (45), prefer (43), inform (37), make (37), militari (35), frame (34), choic (32), technolog (29), border (26), cross (23), rate (22), sensor (22), subject (22), counterterror (21), dimens (21), one (20), use (20),
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Name: American Political Science Association
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MLA Citation:

Mintz, Alex. and Redd, Steven. "Biases in Decision Making and their Influence on Counterterrorism Decisions: A Computerized Experiment" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL, Aug 30, 2007 <Not Available>. 2011-06-09 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p211018_index.html>

APA Citation:

Mintz, A. and Redd, S. B. , 2007-08-30 "Biases in Decision Making and their Influence on Counterterrorism Decisions: A Computerized Experiment" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-06-09 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p211018_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: This study set out to evaluate the extent to which decision makers are subject to known biases in foreign policy decision making. Using the Decision Board computerized platform in an experimental setting, we found that high-ranking military officers were likely to employ satisficing strategies en route to choice, had a "preference over preference" bias for a particular alternative by “locking in” to that alternative while ignoring information on other alternatives, and they were not as influenced by framing and certainty effects. The significance of these findings, their relevance to poliheuristic theory, and their policy implications are then discussed.

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Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 25
Word count: 5690
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Biases in Decision Making and their Influence on Counterterrorism Decisions: A Computerized Experiment Alex Mintz Lauder School of Government Strategy and Diplomacy IDC & Steven B. Redd University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Paper prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association Chicago Illinois August 29 -September 2 2007. Abstract This study set out to evaluate the extent to which decision makers are subject to known biases in foreign policy decision making. Using the Decision Board computerized
Political public within their local may prefer to take the wait- communities." and-see approach." I would rate this alternative I would rate this alternative I would rate this alternative I would rate this alternative as as as as 5 9 -5 8 23


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