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Victory in Asymmetric Conflict: Empowerment of the Weak against the Strong |
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Abstract:
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How do non-state actors of one state defeat foreign states despite being militarily inferior? And why do they win more often when they use guerrilla strategy? I argue that neither conventional nor guerrilla strategy is sufficient for the weak to take to win. I explore the causal linkage between protracted guerrilla warfare and victory by the weak by considering war as a sequence of multiple phases. War outcomes depend on several sequences of actions categorized into conventional, primitive, degenerative, Maoist, and progressive models. A survey of wars between state and foreign non-state actors between 1816 and the present shows that the weak are most likely to win when they follow the progressive model to make a transition from an insurgency movement to a modern political and military organization. In case studies, I show that in the Indochina war the Vietminh adopted the progressive model to defeat the French in 1954 while in the Malayan Emergency ethnic Chinese communists took the primitive course to lose in 1960. The sequencing theory also shows that it is difficult for the weak to keep winning the same way in the 21st century and to achieve the progressive model in Afghanistan and Iraq today. |
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war (255), state (96), guerrilla (90), weak (86), polit (63), win (57), use (53), strategi (47), model (46), theori (46), victori (45), phase (45), sequenc (42), press (42), power (41), warfar (41), forc (40), insurg (39), militari (39), civilian (37), system (37), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association
URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Katagiri, Nori. "Victory in Asymmetric Conflict: Empowerment of the Weak against the Strong" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL, Aug 30, 2007 <Not Available>. 2011-06-08 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p211081_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Katagiri, N. , 2007-08-30 "Victory in Asymmetric Conflict: Empowerment of the Weak against the Strong" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL Online <PDF>. 2011-06-08 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p211081_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: How do non-state actors of one state defeat foreign states despite being militarily inferior? And why do they win more often when they use guerrilla strategy? I argue that neither conventional nor guerrilla strategy is sufficient for the weak to take to win. I explore the causal linkage between protracted guerrilla warfare and victory by the weak by considering war as a sequence of multiple phases. War outcomes depend on several sequences of actions categorized into conventional, primitive, degenerative, Maoist, and progressive models. A survey of wars between state and foreign non-state actors between 1816 and the present shows that the weak are most likely to win when they follow the progressive model to make a transition from an insurgency movement to a modern political and military organization. In case studies, I show that in the Indochina war the Vietminh adopted the progressive model to defeat the French in 1954 while in the Malayan Emergency ethnic Chinese communists took the primitive course to lose in 1960. The sequencing theory also shows that it is difficult for the weak to keep winning the same way in the 21st century and to achieve the progressive model in Afghanistan and Iraq today. |
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| Document Type: |
PDF |
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30 |
| Word count: |
13332 |
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| How Do Non-State Actors Defeat Foreign States? Sequencing Approach to Asymmetric War Nori Katagiri1 Department of Political Science University of Pennsylvania katagiri@sas.upenn.edu Straus Research Fellow Center for Defense Information Abstract How do non-state actors of one state defeat foreign states despite being militarily inferior? And why do they win more often when they use guerrilla strategy? I argue that neither conventional nor guerrilla strategy is sufficient for the weak to take to win. I explore the causal linkage between |
| See for instance “21st-Century Barbarism: The Deadliest Attack to Date in the Iraq War Is Aimed at Defenseless Civilians ” Washington Post (August 16 2007). 80 See for instance Alissa J. Rubin “Cleric Switches Tactics to Meet Changes in Iraq ” The New York Times July 19 2007. 29 the same way as before. Small wars demand resource-absent insurgents to take actions in certain sequential manner. The sequencing approach shows the difficulties inherent for the weak and the fact |
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