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Getting Control of the Counterfactual |
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Abstract:
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Counterfactuals are hypothetical scenarios that by definition cannot be tested, yet there is also a sense that counterfactuals are more than just fiction and may even be fundamental to causal research. This paper seeks to resolve this tension – to get control of the counterfactual as a tool for causal research and to explore some of the ways it can be harnessed. What follows is divided into four parts. The first part examines the role of the counterfactual in causal analysis, establishing the necessity of addressing the counterfactual and differentiating between the theoretical and literal counterfactuals. The second part investigates the process of selecting those counterfactuals most conducive to a strong causal argument, highlighting those attributes that distinguish one counterfactual from another. The third part surveys several established methods of addressing counterfactuals, noting the various strengths and weaknesses of each. Finally, the fourth part explores the implications of the counterfactual for structuring research projects. |
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counterfactu (186), research (81), theori (72), causal (59), ideal (50), select (41), variabl (34), argument (33), theoret (33), correl (31), support (30), observ (27), assert (27), independ (27), page (26), attribut (26), case (25), similar (23), polit (22), two (22), use (21), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association
URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Maass, Richard. "Getting Control of the Counterfactual" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL, Aug 30, 2007 <Not Available>. 2011-06-08 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p211503_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Maass, R. , 2007-08-30 "Getting Control of the Counterfactual" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL Online <PDF>. 2011-06-08 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p211503_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: Counterfactuals are hypothetical scenarios that by definition cannot be tested, yet there is also a sense that counterfactuals are more than just fiction and may even be fundamental to causal research. This paper seeks to resolve this tension – to get control of the counterfactual as a tool for causal research and to explore some of the ways it can be harnessed. What follows is divided into four parts. The first part examines the role of the counterfactual in causal analysis, establishing the necessity of addressing the counterfactual and differentiating between the theoretical and literal counterfactuals. The second part investigates the process of selecting those counterfactuals most conducive to a strong causal argument, highlighting those attributes that distinguish one counterfactual from another. The third part surveys several established methods of addressing counterfactuals, noting the various strengths and weaknesses of each. Finally, the fourth part explores the implications of the counterfactual for structuring research projects. |
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PDF |
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16 |
| Word count: |
6234 |
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| Prepared for delivery at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association August 30 2007 - September 2 2007 Getting Control of the Counterfactual Richard Maass August 9 2007 University of Notre Dame How do we determine causation? Since we can never step in the same river twice we can never be sure that a different step would have affected the river differently and so we can never be sure that our particular step produced the river |
| Look at Oil Diamonds and Civil War.” Annual Review of Political Science Vol. 9 (June 2006). Pages 265-300. Saideman Steve. “Is Pandora’s Box Half-Empty or Half-Full?” in Lake David and Donald Rothschild (eds.) The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear Diffusion Escalation. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press 1998. Pages 127-150. Sambanis Nicholas. “What is Civil War?” Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 48 No. 6 (2004). Pages 814-858. Tetlock and Belkin (eds.) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Princetion NJ: |
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