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Candidates, Campaigns, and Competition in U.S. House Elections, 1972-2006 |
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Abstract:
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Previous work examining the effect of candidate quality and campaign spending on outcomes in congressional races has relied on instrumental variable strategies to address claims of endogeneity. In an alternative approach, we focus on partisan differences, postulating that the strategic choice of political parties regarding which candidates to recruit and endorse differs for open seat and incumbent-contested races. The existence of an open seat controls the switching between the party’s choice regimes. Of course, only one choice is observable for each race, i.e., the Democrat in an open seat race was either a quality challenger or was not, spent at a certain level or did not. Using the method of switching regressions (Heckman 1974; 1979; Lee 1978), we can (a) generate regressors that account for the unobserved counterfactual, and (b) estimate the challenger quality and spending effects. Additionally, our approach permits us to diagnose the extent to which endogeneity presents a statistical problem. We conclude that it does not in the case of challenger quality, but does in the case of campaign spending. Our estimates imply that contrary to conventional wisdom, campaign finance reform proposals that would cap candidate spending in individual races would disproportionately hurt Democratic candidates. |
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spend (110), candid (90), qualiti (88), challeng (87), elect (73), campaign (69), vote (65), effect (63), open (57), seat (55), race (52), incumb (46), democrat (44), estim (42), share (42), republican (36), jacobson (36), polit (36), 1 (32), parti (31), regress (29), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Carson, Jamie. and Bertelli, Anthony. "Candidates, Campaigns, and Competition in U.S. House Elections, 1972-2006" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL, Aug 30, 2007 <Not Available>. 2011-06-08 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p211858_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Carson, J. L. and Bertelli, A. M. , 2007-08-30 "Candidates, Campaigns, and Competition in U.S. House Elections, 1972-2006" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Hyatt Regency Chicago and the Sheraton Chicago Hotel and Towers, Chicago, IL Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-06-08 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p211858_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Abstract: Previous work examining the effect of candidate quality and campaign spending on outcomes in congressional races has relied on instrumental variable strategies to address claims of endogeneity. In an alternative approach, we focus on partisan differences, postulating that the strategic choice of political parties regarding which candidates to recruit and endorse differs for open seat and incumbent-contested races. The existence of an open seat controls the switching between the party’s choice regimes. Of course, only one choice is observable for each race, i.e., the Democrat in an open seat race was either a quality challenger or was not, spent at a certain level or did not. Using the method of switching regressions (Heckman 1974; 1979; Lee 1978), we can (a) generate regressors that account for the unobserved counterfactual, and (b) estimate the challenger quality and spending effects. Additionally, our approach permits us to diagnose the extent to which endogeneity presents a statistical problem. We conclude that it does not in the case of challenger quality, but does in the case of campaign spending. Our estimates imply that contrary to conventional wisdom, campaign finance reform proposals that would cap candidate spending in individual races would disproportionately hurt Democratic candidates. |
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application/pdf |
| Page count: |
36 |
| Word count: |
7582 |
| Text sample: |
| Candidates Campaigns and Competition in U.S. House Elections 1972-2006 Anthony M. Bertelli University of Georgia and University of Manchester bertelli@uga.edu Jamie L. Carson University of Georgia carson@uga.edu Abstract: Previous work examining the effect of candidate quality and campaign spending on outcomes in congressional races has relied on instrumental variable strategies to address claims of endogeneity. In an alternative approach we focus on partisan differences postulating that the strategic choice of political parties regarding which candidates to recruit and endorse |
| 1972-2006 10 Predicted Change in Vote Share (%) −10 −5 −15 0 5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Election Year Democrats Republicans Figure 4: Mean Average Spending Effect of $1M+ Versus $800K-1M 1972-2006 0 Predicted Change in Vote Share (%) −10 −15 −5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Election Year Democrats Republicans |
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