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Identifying Electoral Fraud: A Novel Test and New Data From Nigeria
Unformatted Document Text:  5th pctl of simulated frequency with which last two digits are identical, minus empirical frequency 10 20 50 100 200 −.3 −.2 −.1 0 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q Empirical frequency minus 95th pctl of simulated frequency with which distance between last and penultimate digit is one Number of polling stations in ward (logged) 10 20 50 100 200 −.5 −.4 −.3 −.2 −.1 0 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q Point size is proportional to turnout Multiple columns 5th pctl of simulated frequency with which distance between last and penultimate digit is greater one, minus empirical frequency 10 20 50 100 200 −.6 −.5 −.4 −.3 −.2 −.1 0 .1 q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q Figure 12: Last and p en ultimate d igits 22

Authors: Beber, Bernd. and Scacco, Alexandra.
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5th pctl of simulated frequency with which last two digits
are identical, minus empirical frequency
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Empirical frequency minus 95th pctl of simulated frequency with
which distance between last and penultimate digit is one
Number of polling stations in ward (logged)
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Point size is proportional to turnout
Multiple columns
5th pctl of simulated frequency with which distance between last
and penultimate digit is greater one, minus empirical frequency
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200
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Figure
12:
Last
and
p
en
ultimate
d
igits
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