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Hail to the Fundraiser-in-Chief: The Evolution of Presidential Fundraising Travel, 1977-2004
Unformatted Document Text:  fundraiser-related events in their first term than in their second, in a later year of their term, and in their own home state. Model 2 replicates Model 1, with fundraisers as the dependent variable, and yields results that are quite different. Neither electoral size nor a state’s competitiveness in the previous election is a statistically significant predictor of the number of fundraisers a president holds in a state. Presidents are predicted to hold more fundraisers outside of the Washington, DC, area in their first term, but they are more likely to do so earlier in their term. In this model, in contrast to Model 1, a president’s home state is not a statistically significant predictor of greater numbers of fundraising events. Table 7: Assessing the Relationships Between Presidential Events and Electoral Size and Presidential Popularity: Fixed Effects Negative Binomial Models, 1977-2004 Non- Fundraiser-Related Presidential Events Fundraisers Electoral College Votes .045*** -.0009 President’s Share of the Two-Party Vote in a State in the Prior Election 1.064 2.147** First Term .676*** -.236* Year of Term .284 *** .137*** Miles from Washington, DC -.0002 -.0003 President’s Home State .585*** .241 Constant -2.343*** -.654 Legend: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001 Table 7 presents two additional models, which are identical to Models 1 and 2 with the exception that they employ a different measure of electoral dynamics. They use the president’s share of the two-party vote in a state in the prior presidential election as a measure of presidential popularity. These findings provide further support for the notion that different incentives yield disparate patterns of geographic activity. The results in Model 3 mirror those of Model 1 with one significant exception. While presidents are Doherty 17

Authors: Doherty, Brendan.
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fundraiser-related events in their first term than in their second, in a later year of their
term, and in their own home state.
Model 2 replicates Model 1, with fundraisers as the dependent variable, and yields
results that are quite different. Neither electoral size nor a state’s competitiveness in the
previous election is a statistically significant predictor of the number of fundraisers a
president holds in a state. Presidents are predicted to hold more fundraisers outside of the
Washington, DC, area in their first term, but they are more likely to do so earlier in their
term. In this model, in contrast to Model 1, a president’s home state is not a statistically
significant predictor of greater numbers of fundraising events.

Table 7: Assessing the Relationships Between Presidential Events and Electoral Size and Presidential
Popularity: Fixed Effects Negative Binomial Models, 1977-2004

Non-
Fundraiser-
Related
Presidential
Events
Fundraisers
Electoral College Votes
.045***
-.0009
President’s Share of the Two-Party Vote in
a State in the Prior Election
1.064
2.147**
First Term
.676***
-.236*
Year of Term
.284 ***
.137***
Miles from Washington, DC
-.0002
-.0003
President’s Home State
.585***
.241
Constant -2.343***
-.654
Legend: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001


Table 7 presents two additional models, which are identical to Models 1 and 2
with the exception that they employ a different measure of electoral dynamics. They use
the president’s share of the two-party vote in a state in the prior presidential election as a
measure of presidential popularity. These findings provide further support for the notion
that different incentives yield disparate patterns of geographic activity. The results in
Model 3 mirror those of Model 1 with one significant exception. While presidents are
Doherty
17


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