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Time for a Change? A Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Election

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Abstract:

The PRIMARY MODEL predicts that in race between the two primary winners (New Hampshire) Democrat Hillary Clinton edges Republican John McCain by a narrow margin: 50.5 to 49.5 percent of the two-party vote. Barack Obama would win by the narrowest of margins over McCain: 50.1 to 49.9 percent. In addition to primary elections, the forecast model relies on a cyclical dynamic detected in presidential elections. The model estimates are based on presidential elections going back as far as 1912, the first year of presidential primaries, with an adjustment applied to partisanship for pre-New Deal elections. The primary performance of the incumbent-party candidate and that of the opposition-party candidate enter as separate predictors. For elections since 1952, the primary-support measure relies solely on the New Hampshire primary. The 2008 forecasts for presidential match-ups were first posted January 15. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/new_hampshires_crystal_ball_in.php

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primari (135), elect (100), parti (97), vote (87), forecast (62), presidenti (57), candid (55), support (51), model (45), democrat (41), incumb (32), new (31), republican (30), presid (28), general (25), two (24), elector (22), 1912 (21), hampshir (21), one (21), hous (20),

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Presidential elections, forecasting, 2008 election
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Name: MPSA Annual National Conference
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http://www.indiana.edu/~mpsa/


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Norpoth, Helmut. "Time for a Change? A Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Election" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the MPSA Annual National Conference, Palmer House Hotel, Hilton, Chicago, IL, Apr 03, 2008 <Not Available>. 2013-12-14 <http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p265903_index.html>

APA Citation:

Norpoth, H. , 2008-04-03 "Time for a Change? A Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Election" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the MPSA Annual National Conference, Palmer House Hotel, Hilton, Chicago, IL Online <PDF>. 2013-12-14 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p265903_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: The PRIMARY MODEL predicts that in race between the two primary winners (New Hampshire) Democrat Hillary Clinton edges Republican John McCain by a narrow margin: 50.5 to 49.5 percent of the two-party vote. Barack Obama would win by the narrowest of margins over McCain: 50.1 to 49.9 percent. In addition to primary elections, the forecast model relies on a cyclical dynamic detected in presidential elections. The model estimates are based on presidential elections going back as far as 1912, the first year of presidential primaries, with an adjustment applied to partisanship for pre-New Deal elections. The primary performance of the incumbent-party candidate and that of the opposition-party candidate enter as separate predictors. For elections since 1952, the primary-support measure relies solely on the New Hampshire primary. The 2008 forecasts for presidential match-ups were first posted January 15. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/new_hampshires_crystal_ball_in.php

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Associated Document Available All Academic Inc.
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: PDF
Page count: 24
Word count: 5879
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TIME FOR A CHANGE? FORECASTING THE 2008 ELECTION Helmut Norpoth Dept. of Political Science Stony Brook University (631) 632-7640 (631) 632-4116 (fax) helmut.norpoth@sunysb.edu ABSTRACT The PRIMARY MODEL predicts that in race between the two primary winners (New Hampshire) Democrat Hillary Clinton edges Republican John McCain by a narrow margin: 50.5 to 49.5 percent of the two-party vote. Barack Obama would win by the narrowest of margins over McCain: 50.1 to 49.9 percent. In addition to primary elections the forecast
The “official” count of the popular vote for Alabama lists the votes received by the top Democratic elector—a free elector who voted for Byrd not Kennedy in the electoral college. Given all these complications it might seem justified to award Kennedy no more than 5/11 of the average vote cast for Democratic electors in Alabama (the share of pledged electors). In that event Nixon wins the national popular vote in 1960. See Gaines (2001). 8 The close fit of


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