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Ballot Roll-off in Intermediate Appellate Court Elections
Unformatted Document Text:  12 otherwise do so. 10 This effect is reversed in races where the Hispanic candidate is a previously successful incumbent (p < .05). Although the presence of Hispanic candidates on the ballot lowers roll-off slightly, the presence of female candidates does not have the same effect. In races involving female candidates, roll-off increases 4.4 percent, controlling for the other variables in the model (p < .001). However, when the race is partisan, a female candidate on the ballot reduces roll-off by 5 percentage points (p < .001). These results show the simulative effect of female candidates in low-information elections is highly contingent on the type of race. Gender is a salient cue when partisanship and female status interact, as voters are more inclined to participate when they know what the party of the candidate is. No such interactive relationship is present between female candidates and incumbency status. Like state supreme court elections, the presence of a presidential race at the top of the ballot is a positive predictor of roll-off in IAC elections (p < .01). This result is consistent with those for state supreme court elections (Hall 2007; Hall and Bonneau 2008), but is at odds with what has been documented in trial court elections (Hall and Aspin 1987a). However, the multiplicative term for district races conducted during presidential elections sheds light on the conditional nature of this relationship. Like trial court elections, most IAC races are held in districts so a presidential race at the top of the ballot does not seem to significantly influence roll-off in this context. In contrast, when the IAC race is not conducted in a district, which is the case in most state supreme court elections, the roll-off rate tends to expand with a presidential election atop the ballot. Perhaps the most puzzling finding reported in Table 3 pertains to education. Education is a highly significant predictor of roll-off (p < .001), but in the opposite direction of what one 10 Whether such information is a reliable cue is debatable.

Authors: Streb, Matthew., Frederick, Brian. and LaFrance, Casey.
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12
otherwise do so.
10
This effect is reversed in races where the Hispanic candidate is a previously
successful incumbent (p < .05).
Although the presence of Hispanic candidates on the ballot lowers roll-off slightly, the
presence of female candidates does not have the same effect. In races involving female
candidates, roll-off increases 4.4 percent, controlling for the other variables in the model (p <
.001). However, when the race is partisan, a female candidate on the ballot reduces roll-off by 5
percentage points (p < .001). These results show the simulative effect of female candidates in
low-information elections is highly contingent on the type of race. Gender is a salient cue when
partisanship and female status interact, as voters are more inclined to participate when they know
what the party of the candidate is. No such interactive relationship is present between female
candidates and incumbency status.
Like state supreme court elections, the presence of a presidential race at the top of the
ballot is a positive predictor of roll-off in IAC elections (p < .01). This result is consistent with
those for state supreme court elections (Hall 2007; Hall and Bonneau 2008), but is at odds with
what has been documented in trial court elections (Hall and Aspin 1987a). However, the
multiplicative term for district races conducted during presidential elections sheds light on the
conditional nature of this relationship. Like trial court elections, most IAC races are held in
districts so a presidential race at the top of the ballot does not seem to significantly influence
roll-off in this context. In contrast, when the IAC race is not conducted in a district, which is the
case in most state supreme court elections, the roll-off rate tends to expand with a presidential
election atop the ballot.
Perhaps the most puzzling finding reported in Table 3 pertains to education. Education is
a highly significant predictor of roll-off (p < .001), but in the opposite direction of what one
10
Whether such information is a reliable cue is debatable.


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