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Here Me Roar: What Provokes Supreme Court Justices to Dissent from the Bench
Unformatted Document Text:  23 Figure 5: Effect of Number of Oral Argument Questions on Probability of Announcement Holding all other variables at their median values, a justice has only 0.004 probability of announcing her opinion when there was relatively little activity at oral arguments. For a case with an average amount of oral argument activity, the probability doubles to 0.008. This difference is statistically significant at the 90 percent level. The move from an average case to a case with an above average amount of activity increases the probability of announcement to 0.01, but this change is not statistically distinguishable from either the mean or lower level of oral argument activity. In the context of the Minimum Winning Vote variable, the substantive results are stronger. Here, a justice announces with a probability of only 0.007 when the decision is not a minimum-winning one. In its minimum-winning counterpart, however, a justice will announce

Authors: Johnson, Timothy. and Black, Ryan.
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23
Figure 5: Effect of Number of Oral Argument Questions on Probability of Announcement
Holding all other variables at their median values, a justice has only 0.004 probability of
announcing her opinion when there was relatively little activity at oral arguments. For a case
with an average amount of oral argument activity, the probability doubles to 0.008. This
difference is statistically significant at the 90 percent level. The move from an average case to a
case with an above average amount of activity increases the probability of announcement to 0.01,
but this change is not statistically distinguishable from either the mean or lower level of oral
argument activity.
In the context of the Minimum Winning Vote variable, the substantive results are
stronger. Here, a justice announces with a probability of only 0.007 when the decision is not a
minimum-winning one. In its minimum-winning counterpart, however, a justice will announce


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