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Deciding to Quit: A Duration Model of Retirement in Congress
Unformatted Document Text:  The plots become unusual when one crosses the threshold of the 40 th year of service. This is the point in the dataset were the data becomes very rare. Of the 2634 data points in the dataset only nine represent members who have served 40 or more years. These nine data points are spread among only four subjects. Any data at that extreme needs to taken with a grain of salt. The actual values of the coefficients in the regression can be interpreted regarding their effects on the hazard of retirement. The odds ratio is exp(Beta-hat). For example when one looks at the variable measuring margin of victory the coefficient is -0.168. exp(-0.168) = .845 This means that a one unit increase in the natural log of the margin of victory will reduce the hazard of retirement by 15.5 percent, all other variables being equal. This interpretation can be shown using survival plots. Again using the margin of victory variable we can see the effects of a change in the natural log of the margin of victory from the extremely low value of -4 to the extremely high value of 4. This represents the change in the hazard when the margin of victory in the previous election moves from about 0.02 percent to about 55 percent. These are values near the extremes of this dataset.

Authors: Sempolinski, Joseph.
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The plots become unusual when one crosses the threshold of the 40
th
year of
service. This is the point in the dataset were the data becomes very rare. Of the 2634 data
points in the dataset only nine represent members who have served 40 or more years.
These nine data points are spread among only four subjects. Any data at that extreme
needs to taken with a grain of salt.
The actual values of the coefficients in the regression can be interpreted regarding
their effects on the hazard of retirement. The odds ratio is exp(Beta-hat). For example
when one looks at the variable measuring margin of victory the coefficient is -0.168.
exp(-0.168) = .845
This means that a one unit increase in the natural log of the margin of victory will
reduce the hazard of retirement by 15.5 percent, all other variables being equal. This
interpretation can be shown using survival plots. Again using the margin of victory
variable we can see the effects of a change in the natural log of the margin of victory
from the extremely low value of -4 to the extremely high value of 4. This represents the
change in the hazard when the margin of victory in the previous election moves from
about 0.02 percent to about 55 percent. These are values near the extremes of this dataset.


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