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Deciding to Quit: A Duration Model of Retirement in Congress
Unformatted Document Text:  0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 S urvival 0 10 20 30 40 50 analysis time logofmargin = -4 logofmargin = 4 Cox proportional hazards regression All other variables remain at their averages. One can see that the survival drops off much quicker for the line describing a small margin of victory. The interpretation of the other significant variable, career ceilings is slightly more complicated and much more interesting. This interaction allows the relationship between the hazard and the position one has in Congress to change. The proportionality assumption is relaxed. As a matter of course the standard test of the proportionality on Schowenfeld residuals was conducted for a version of the model that did not include the interaction and was conducted with the efron method for breaking ties. 16 For all the variables the null of proportionality could not be rejected, including the position variable. The interaction is included in the main model for the obvious theoretical reasons even 16 The exact tiebreaking method cannot be used to generate the residuals necessary for the nonproportionality diagnostics.

Authors: Sempolinski, Joseph.
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analysis time
logofmargin = -4
logofmargin = 4
Cox proportional hazards regression
All other variables remain at their averages. One can see that the survival drops
off much quicker for the line describing a small margin of victory.
The interpretation of the other significant variable, career ceilings is slightly more
complicated and much more interesting. This interaction allows the relationship between
the hazard and the position one has in Congress to change. The proportionality
assumption is relaxed. As a matter of course the standard test of the proportionality on
Schowenfeld residuals was conducted for a version of the model that did not include the
interaction and was conducted with the efron method for breaking ties.
For all the
variables the null of proportionality could not be rejected, including the position variable.
The interaction is included in the main model for the obvious theoretical reasons even
16
The exact tiebreaking method cannot be used to generate the residuals necessary for the
nonproportionality diagnostics.


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