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Campaign Finance: Timing and Its Torments
Unformatted Document Text:  Table 3. Explaining Donations to Republican Challengers in 2004 Parties PACs Business Labor + Ideological Leadership Individuals Time­variantCum. party donations ­0.45*** ­0.36*** ­0.01 ­0.20*** ­0.09** 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 Cum. business PAC donations 0.13* 0.62*** ­0.01 0.05 0.28*** 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Cum. ideol. PAC donations ­0.04 0.02 0.28*** 0.00 0.07* 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Cum. leadership PAC donations 0.72*** 0.11 # 0.17** 0.31*** ­0.17** 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Cum. individual donations ­0.21*** 0.05 # 0.16*** 0.22*** 0.50*** 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Post­Labor Day 0.07 0.03 0.31*** 0.10 0.02 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Post primary ­0.24*** ­0.07 ­0.12* ­0.01 ­0.09 # 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 Poll gap (Democrat – Republican) ­0.03** 0.01 ­0.03** 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Poll results released 1.50*** 1.64*** 0.88* 1.10*** 0.71*** 0.18 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.15 Bush approval ­0.01 ­0.01 0.00 ­0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 Time­invariant Experience ­0.16* ­0.03 0.07 ­0.04 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Presidential vote 0.00 0.00 0.00 ­0.01* ­0.01*** 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lagged Democratic House vote 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Incumbent seniority (terms) ­0.01 ­0.01 0.01 0.00 ­0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Intercept 1.11** 0.56 # 0.71* 0.53 0.36 R 2 0.30 0.49 0.39 0.32 0.47 χ 2  (d.f. = 13) 616.76*** 221.76*** 943.48*** 674.37*** 1321.41*** Total N 1481 1481 1481 1481 1481 Group N 129 129 129 129 129

Authors: McGhee, Eric. and La Raja, Raymond.
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Table 3. Explaining Donations to Republican Challengers in 2004
Parties
PACs
Business
Labor
+
Ideological
Leadership
Individuals
Time­variant
Cum. party donations
­0.45***
­0.36***
­0.01
­0.20***
­0.09**
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.03
Cum. business PAC donations
0.13*
0.62***
­0.01
0.05
0.28***
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
Cum. ideol. PAC donations
­0.04
0.02
0.28***
0.00
0.07*
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Cum. leadership PAC donations
0.72***
0.11
#
0.17**
0.31***
­0.17**
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
Cum. individual donations
­0.21***
0.05
#
0.16***
0.22***
0.50***
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Post­Labor Day
0.07
0.03
0.31***
0.10
0.02
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
Post primary
­0.24***
­0.07
­0.12*
­0.01
­0.09
#
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.05
Poll gap (Democrat – Republican)
­0.03**
0.01
­0.03**
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Poll results released
1.50***
1.64***
0.88*
1.10***
0.71***
0.18
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.15
Bush approval
­0.01
­0.01
0.00
­0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
Time­invariant
Experience
­0.16*
­0.03
0.07
­0.04
0.09
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
Presidential vote
0.00
0.00
0.00
­0.01*
­0.01***
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Lagged Democratic House vote
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Incumbent seniority (terms)
­0.01
­0.01
0.01
0.00
­0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Intercept
1.11**
0.56
#
0.71*
0.53
0.36
R
2
0.30
0.49
0.39
0.32
0.47
χ
(d.f. = 13)
616.76***
221.76***
943.48***
674.37***
1321.41***
Total N
1481
1481
1481
1481
1481
Group N
129
129
129
129
129


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