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Bandwagons and Kerry vs. Bush 2004
Unformatted Document Text:  15 Interestingly there seems to be a bimodal distribution among the middle categories of education with the LAST POLL coefficients and standard errors closely approximating one another for those with both a High School diploma and those with a 4-year degree and dropping in the middle category for those with some college education. There is no a priori theoretically grounded explanation for this distribution. Regardless, in the case of education it seems pretty clear that our expectations seem to have been on the right track for establishing the groups for whom we may have expected a contagion effect. Like the “follow politics” sub-groupings the R-Square values increase as education increases. Thus the better educated an individual is, the better we can explain the variance in a respondent’s evaluation of the candidates, given the predictors in the model. Results – Vote Intention Good feelings alone are not adequate to prove that bandwagons operate during national election cycles. Given that there is evidence that people feel more positively about candidates who are doing well in the polls, what remains to be seen is that they also express an increased disposition to support that candidate come the actual election date. The setup for the models for vote intention is essentially the same as for candidate favorability with the only differences being the dependent variable and the estimation technique. Instead of favorability, the dependent variable is the two party vote intention for either Democrat John Kerry (coded 1) or Republican President George W. Bush (coded 0). As the dependent variable is no longer a scale but a dichotomy, instead of using Ordinary Least Squares regression estimation, logistic regression is used. [Insert Table 4 here]

Authors: Daigle, Delton.
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15
Interestingly there seems to be a bimodal distribution among the middle categories of
education with the LAST POLL coefficients and standard errors closely approximating
one another for those with both a High School diploma and those with a 4-year degree
and dropping in the middle category for those with some college education. There is no a
priori theoretically grounded explanation for this distribution. Regardless, in the case of
education it seems pretty clear that our expectations seem to have been on the right track
for establishing the groups for whom we may have expected a contagion effect. Like the
“follow politics” sub-groupings the R-Square values increase as education increases.
Thus the better educated an individual is, the better we can explain the variance in a
respondent’s evaluation of the candidates, given the predictors in the model.
Results – Vote Intention
Good feelings alone are not adequate to prove that bandwagons operate during
national election cycles. Given that there is evidence that people feel more positively
about candidates who are doing well in the polls, what remains to be seen is that they also
express an increased disposition to support that candidate come the actual election date.
The setup for the models for vote intention is essentially the same as for candidate
favorability with the only differences being the dependent variable and the estimation
technique. Instead of favorability, the dependent variable is the two party vote intention
for either Democrat John Kerry (coded 1) or Republican President George W. Bush
(coded 0). As the dependent variable is no longer a scale but a dichotomy, instead of
using Ordinary Least Squares regression estimation, logistic regression is used.
[Insert Table 4 here]


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