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Bandwagons and Kerry vs. Bush 2004
Unformatted Document Text:  28 Table 4 LAST POLL 0.0132 *** 0.0149 0.0149 * 0.0239 *** 0.0181 * -0.0106 (0.0041) (0.0147) (0.0079) (0.0080) (0.0094) (0.0100) African American 1.0288 *** 1.4124 *** 1.1806 *** 0.9997 *** 1.1445 *** 0.6195 *** (0 non AA, 1 AA) (0.0524) (0.1733) (0.1012) (0.0967) (0.1254) (0.1320) Sex 0.0288 -0.0738 -0.0146 0.0811 0.0386 0.1048 (0 Male, 1 Female) (0.0333) (0.1231) (0.0641) (0.0645) (0.0752) (0.0808) Freq. Read Newspapers 0.0390 *** 0.0003 -0.0022 0.0502 *** 0.0413 *** 0.0535 *** in Last Week (0 - 7) (0.0059) (0.0223) (0.0114) (0.0116) (0.0137) (0.0149) Freq. Watched Cable News -0.0577 *** 0.0222 -0.0305 *** -0.0584 *** -0.0730 *** -0.1072 *** in Last Week (0 - 7) (0.0060) (0.0236) (0.0116) (0.0115) (0.0136) (0.0143) Freq. Watched Network News 0.0755 *** 0.0156 0.0848 *** 0.0927 *** 0.0708 *** 0.0823 *** in Last Week (0 - 7) (0.0065) (0.0242) (0.0125) (0.0125) (0.0149) (0.0155) Party Identification 2.2484 *** 1.7766 *** 1.9972 *** 2.2707 *** 2.5038 *** 2.6251 *** (Direction -1 Rep, 0 Ind, 1 Dem) (0.0238) (0.0825) (0.0430) (0.0460) (0.0574) (0.0644) Constant -0.3330 *** -0.0834 -0.4863 *** -0.6068 *** -0.1453 0.1011 (0.0389) (0.1199) (0.0722) (0.0762) (0.0914) (0.1042) N 30076 1844 7544 8278 6502 5778 Pseudo R^2 0.4267 0.3213 0.3872 0.4341 0.4712 0.4789 Prob > Chi^2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAST POLL = 0 0.4462 --- 0.4072 0.3862 0.4965 --- (0.0083) (0.0152) (0.0151) (0.0194) LAST POLL = 10 0.4788 --- 0.4442 0.4443 0.5406 --- (0.0140) (0.0251) (0.0265) (0.0324) Difference 3.26% --- 3.70% 5.81% 4.41% --- (1) National Annenberg Election Study Data - June 15th to Nov. 1st., 2004. Standard Errors in parentheses.(2) Estimated using Gary King's Clarify.*** P<.01, * P<.1 Grad School Education Level Entire Sample < HS HS Diploma Some College Logistic Regression Estimates Assessing the Impact of Previous Public Opinion Polls on Expressed Vote Intention for 2004 Democratic Presidential Vote by Educational Categories (1) 4 Year Degree Grad School Impact of a 10 Point Shift in Polls towards Kerry on the Probability of Voting for Kerry. (2) Education Level Entire Sample < HS HS Diploma Some College 4 Year Degree

Authors: Daigle, Delton.
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28
Table 4
LAST POLL
0.0132 ***
0.0149
0.0149 *
0.0239 ***
0.0181 *
-0.0106
(0.0041)
(0.0147)
(0.0079)
(0.0080)
(0.0094)
(0.0100)
African American
1.0288 ***
1.4124 ***
1.1806 ***
0.9997 ***
1.1445 ***
0.6195 ***
(0 non AA, 1 AA)
(0.0524)
(0.1733)
(0.1012)
(0.0967)
(0.1254)
(0.1320)
Sex
0.0288
-0.0738
-0.0146
0.0811
0.0386
0.1048
(0 Male, 1 Female)
(0.0333)
(0.1231)
(0.0641)
(0.0645)
(0.0752)
(0.0808)
Freq. Read Newspapers
0.0390 ***
0.0003
-0.0022
0.0502 ***
0.0413 ***
0.0535 ***
in Last Week (0 - 7)
(0.0059)
(0.0223)
(0.0114)
(0.0116)
(0.0137)
(0.0149)
Freq. Watched Cable News
-0.0577 ***
0.0222
-0.0305 ***
-0.0584 ***
-0.0730 ***
-0.1072 ***
in Last Week (0 - 7)
(0.0060)
(0.0236)
(0.0116)
(0.0115)
(0.0136)
(0.0143)
Freq. Watched Network News
0.0755 ***
0.0156
0.0848 ***
0.0927 ***
0.0708 ***
0.0823 ***
in Last Week (0 - 7)
(0.0065)
(0.0242)
(0.0125)
(0.0125)
(0.0149)
(0.0155)
Party Identification
2.2484 ***
1.7766 ***
1.9972 ***
2.2707 ***
2.5038 ***
2.6251 ***
(Direction -1 Rep, 0 Ind, 1 Dem)
(0.0238)
(0.0825)
(0.0430)
(0.0460)
(0.0574)
(0.0644)
Constant
-0.3330 ***
-0.0834
-0.4863 ***
-0.6068 ***
-0.1453
0.1011
(0.0389)
(0.1199)
(0.0722)
(0.0762)
(0.0914)
(0.1042)
N
30076
1844
7544
8278
6502
5778
Pseudo R^2
0.4267
0.3213
0.3872
0.4341
0.4712
0.4789
Prob > Chi^2
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
LAST POLL = 0
0.4462
---
0.4072
0.3862
0.4965
---
(0.0083)
(0.0152)
(0.0151)
(0.0194)
LAST POLL = 10
0.4788
---
0.4442
0.4443
0.5406
---
(0.0140)
(0.0251)
(0.0265)
(0.0324)
Difference
3.26%
---
3.70%
5.81%
4.41%
---
(1) National Annenberg Election Study Data - June 15th to Nov. 1st., 2004. Standard Errors in parentheses.
(2) Estimated using Gary King's Clarify.
*** P<.01, * P<.1
Grad School
Education Level
Entire Sample
< HS
HS Diploma
Some College
Logistic Regression Estimates Assessing the Impact of Previous Public Opinion Polls on Expressed Vote Intention for 2004
Democratic Presidential Vote by Educational Categories (1)
4 Year Degree
Grad School
Impact of a 10 Point Shift in Polls towards Kerry on the Probability of Voting for Kerry. (2)
Education Level
Entire Sample
< HS
HS Diploma
Some College
4 Year Degree















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