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Economy and Political Parties: The Impact of the Economic Conditions on the Party Membership Trend in England and Germany, 1950-1994
Unformatted Document Text:  16 could maintain the level of party memberships. It implies that the SPD’s party leaders saw the significance of party memberships. The independent variables are the percentage change of GDP, the percentage change of per capita, and the annual rate of unemployment of England and Germany from 1945-1994. 6 Figure 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4 reveal the general trends of the England and Germany’s macroeconomic factors. In general England and Germany’s [Figure 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4] economies performed quite fine. Germany seemed to perform better than England. The England’s economic growth seems to have some relationship with the Labour’s party memberships in that while the Labour party membership trend was in decline, England’s growth rate was declining. From eyeball inspection, party membership trends seem to have negative relationship with the GDP per capita. The unemployment rates of England and Germany were growing whereas party membership trends of Labour and SPD were in decline. Table 2 and 3 reveal the summary statistics of the dependent and independent variables. [Table 2 and 3] I ran the correlation of all variables in order to diagnose for multicollinearity and to see the contemporaneous relationship between variables. Table 4 and 5 show the correlation coefficients of all variables. For Labour party, party membership is negatively and contemporaneously correlated with the unemployment rate, and the correlation [Table 4 and 5] 6 The independent variables are also diagnosed for unit roots by using Dickey-Fuller test (Dickey and Fuller 1979). For England, the economic growth and income per capita are stationary. Nonetheless, unemployment rate has a unit roots. For Germany, the economic growth and income per capita are stationary. The unemployment rate (p value for z score = 0.0619) is stationary at p<0.10 level when I lagged one year with drift.

Authors: Laiprakobsup, Thanapan.
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16
could maintain the level of party memberships. It implies that the SPD’s party leaders
saw the significance of party memberships.
The independent variables are the percentage change of GDP, the percentage
change of per capita, and the annual rate of unemployment of England and Germany
Figure 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4 reveal the general trends of the
England and Germany’s macroeconomic factors. In general England and Germany’s
[Figure 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4]
economies performed quite fine. Germany seemed to perform better than England. The
England’s economic growth seems to have some relationship with the Labour’s party
memberships in that while the Labour party membership trend was in decline, England’s
growth rate was declining. From eyeball inspection, party membership trends seem to
have negative relationship with the GDP per capita. The unemployment rates of England
and Germany were growing whereas party membership trends of Labour and SPD were
in decline. Table 2 and 3 reveal the summary statistics of the dependent and independent
variables.
[Table 2 and 3]
I ran the correlation of all variables in order to diagnose for multicollinearity and
to see the contemporaneous relationship between variables. Table 4 and 5 show the
correlation coefficients of all variables. For Labour party, party membership is negatively
and contemporaneously correlated with the unemployment rate, and the correlation
[Table 4 and 5]
6
The independent variables are also diagnosed for unit roots by using Dickey-Fuller test (Dickey and Fuller
1979). For England, the economic growth and income per capita are stationary. Nonetheless,
unemployment rate has a unit roots. For Germany, the economic growth and income per capita are
stationary. The unemployment rate (p value for z score = 0.0619) is stationary at p<0.10 level when I
lagged one year with drift.


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