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Cabinet Duration in Latin American Presidential Democracies
Unformatted Document Text:  affecting the stability of cabinets than the former—I sustain model 5 without the parliamentary fragmentation despite the lower log-likelihood. Finally, when the dummy variables for country identities are included in the models, the log-likelihoods increase, which means that there are some unknown country-specific factors that affect the durability of cabinets. Among the ten Latin American countries, Costa Rica and Ecuador have extraordinarily more stable cabinets than the others, and the larger stability in these countries is not sufficiently explained by the covariates in this study (p<.01). The greater cabinet duration in these countries needs to be investigated in future studies. 4. Analysis and Discussion of Findings The fragmentation in the cabinet, the strength of the cabinet parties in the parliament, and the economic performance of cabinets are confirmed to have meaningful effects on the duration of cabinets. The first two factors have been emphasized by the government features theorists . The ideological diversity (distance between parties) in the cabinet, which is one of the most important covariates of the government features theory, has expected effects even though the effects are not statistically significant. We need to pay close attention to the reasons why the covariates of the parliament features theory, especially parliamentary polarization and electoral volatility, lack significant effects on the stability of cabinets. Except for the rare cases in which the president steps down early due to impeachment by the parliament, military coup, or popular uprising, most of the time the president or party leaders in the cabinet decide to dissolve the cabinet. 29 Hence, cabinet 29 Only 12.5% of all the “failed” cabinets in my dataset belong to the “rare” cases, while 87.5% of the “failed” cabinets belong to the cases in which the president or coalition leaders decide to terminate the cabinet. 21

Authors: Shin, Jae Hyeok.
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affecting the stability of cabinets than the former—I sustain model 5 without the parliamentary
fragmentation despite the lower log-likelihood.
Finally, when the dummy variables for country identities are included in the models, the
log-likelihoods increase, which means that there are some unknown country-specific factors that
affect the durability of cabinets. Among the ten Latin American countries, Costa Rica and
Ecuador have extraordinarily more stable cabinets than the others, and the larger stability in these
countries is not sufficiently explained by the covariates in this study (p<.01). The greater cabinet
duration in these countries needs to be investigated in future studies.
4. Analysis and Discussion of Findings
The fragmentation in the cabinet, the strength of the cabinet parties in the parliament, and the
economic performance of cabinets are confirmed to have meaningful effects on the duration of
cabinets. The first two factors have been emphasized by the government features theorists . The
ideological diversity (distance between parties) in the cabinet, which is one of the most important
covariates of the government features theory, has expected effects even though the effects are not
statistically significant.
We need to pay close attention to the reasons why the covariates of the parliament
features theory, especially parliamentary polarization and electoral volatility, lack significant
effects on the stability of cabinets. Except for the rare cases in which the president steps down
early due to impeachment by the parliament, military coup, or popular uprising, most of the time
the president or party leaders in the cabinet decide to dissolve the cabinet.
Hence, cabinet
29
Only 12.5% of all the “failed” cabinets in my dataset belong to the “rare” cases, while 87.5% of the “failed”
cabinets belong to the cases in which the president or coalition leaders decide to terminate the cabinet.
21


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