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Cabinet Duration in Latin American Presidential Democracies
Unformatted Document Text:  By and large the preliminary causal mechanism of cabinet duration in figure 1 is confirmed with the empirical results. Figure 2 refines the preliminary causality. On the one hand, cabinet attributes rather than parliament attributes have more meaningful effects on the duration of cabinets. The fragmentation of the parliament affects the number of parties in the cabinet. The more fragmented the parliament is, the more parties there are in the cabinet. Fragmented cabinets, in turn, are less likely to be sustained. Polarized parliaments do not necessarily cause polarized cabinets. Even though the parliament is polarized, the president can form his cabinet with ideologically close parties. The correlation between the polarization of parliaments and that of cabinets is only .075. The ideological distance between cabinet parties has the expected effects on the duration of the cabinet: the more distance there is between the cabinet parties, the less likely the cabinet is to be sustained. The effects, however, lack statistical significance. The strength of cabinet parties in the parliament significantly affects cabinet duration. The more parliamentary seats the cabinet parties take, the less likely the cabinet is to be dissolved. On the other hand, the economic performance of the cabinet, rather than the occurrence of an economic crisis, has a more pronounced effect on cabinet duration. Even though an unpredicted economic crisis hits a country, if the cabinet is successful in dealing with the crisis, the cabinet is likely to survive to the next election. The events process theorists, therefore, need to focus more on cabinet performance in key policy areas. FIGURE 2. Refined Causal Mechanism of Cabinet Duration Parliament attributes Cabinet attributes     23

Authors: Shin, Jae Hyeok.
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By and large the preliminary causal mechanism of cabinet duration in figure 1 is
confirmed with the empirical results. Figure 2 refines the preliminary causality. On the one hand,
cabinet attributes rather than parliament attributes have more meaningful effects on the duration
of cabinets. The fragmentation of the parliament affects the number of parties in the cabinet. The
more fragmented the parliament is, the more parties there are in the cabinet. Fragmented
cabinets, in turn, are less likely to be sustained. Polarized parliaments do not necessarily cause
polarized cabinets. Even though the parliament is polarized, the president can form his cabinet
with ideologically close parties. The correlation between the polarization of parliaments and that
of cabinets is only .075. The ideological distance between cabinet parties has the expected effects
on the duration of the cabinet: the more distance there is between the cabinet parties, the less
likely the cabinet is to be sustained. The effects, however, lack statistical significance. The
strength of cabinet parties in the parliament significantly affects cabinet duration. The more
parliamentary seats the cabinet parties take, the less likely the cabinet is to be dissolved.
On the other hand, the economic performance of the cabinet, rather than the occurrence
of an economic crisis, has a more pronounced effect on cabinet duration. Even though an
unpredicted economic crisis hits a country, if the cabinet is successful in dealing with the crisis,
the cabinet is likely to survive to the next election. The events process theorists, therefore, need
to focus more on cabinet performance in key policy areas.
FIGURE 2. Refined Causal Mechanism of Cabinet Duration
Parliament attributes
Cabinet attributes
 
 
23


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