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Cabinet Duration in Latin American Presidential Democracies
Unformatted Document Text:  which informs us that it is almost impossible for cabinet performance to be predicted by structural variables. Thus, it is difficult to find a theoretical or empirical bridge between the two approaches. TABLE 4. Effects of Cabinet Attributes on Economic Performance (OLS) Dependent variable: economic performance of cabinets (average annual GDP growth rate)Independentvariables Slope Standard error Statistical Significance Cabinet Attributes:       Number of parties -0.28 0.54 0.61 Ideological distance -1.29 2.28 0.57 Parliamentary seats 2.07 2.94 0.48 Oversized winning coalition -0.52 1.28 0.68 Controls:Economic crisis -0.02 0.04 0.67 GDP per capita -0.48 1.35 0.72 Intercept 6.06 4.86   Number of cases: 131Adjusted r-square: -.04 Finally, it seems that there are no conspicuous differences in factors that affect cabinet duration between parliamentarism and presidentialism. By and large, the existing theories on the duration of parliamentary cabinets in Western Europe succeed in explaining the duration of presidential cabinets in Latin America. The President is the permanent formateur. He chooses the members of the cabinet. He bargains with party leaders over their support in the legislature. The choice of cabinet members of the president is similar to that of the prime minister in parliamentarism in that both consider various factors—such as the size of his party and the influence of opposition parties in the parliament—when they choose cabinet members. For instance, when the government party is small and the president (or prime minister) has to worry about obstructionism of the opposition parties, he will include other parties in his cabinet . Since 25

Authors: Shin, Jae Hyeok.
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which informs us that it is almost impossible for cabinet performance to be predicted by
structural variables. Thus, it is difficult to find a theoretical or empirical bridge between the two
approaches.
TABLE 4. Effects of Cabinet Attributes on Economic Performance (OLS)
Dependent variable: economic performance of cabinets (average annual GDP growth rate)
Independent
variables
Slope
Standard
error
Statistical
Significance
Cabinet Attributes:
 
 
 
Number of parties
-0.28
0.54
0.61
Ideological distance
-1.29
2.28
0.57
Parliamentary seats
2.07
2.94
0.48
Oversized winning coalition
-0.52
1.28
0.68
Controls:
Economic crisis
-0.02
0.04
0.67
GDP per capita
-0.48
1.35
0.72
Intercept
6.06
4.86
 
Number of cases: 131
Adjusted r-square: -.04
Finally, it seems that there are no conspicuous differences in factors that affect cabinet
duration between parliamentarism and presidentialism. By and large, the existing theories on the
duration of parliamentary cabinets in Western Europe succeed in explaining the duration of
presidential cabinets in Latin America. The President is the permanent formateur. He chooses the
members of the cabinet. He bargains with party leaders over their support in the legislature. The
choice of cabinet members of the president is similar to that of the prime minister in
parliamentarism in that both consider various factors—such as the size of his party and the
influence of opposition parties in the parliament—when they choose cabinet members. For
instance, when the government party is small and the president (or prime minister) has to worry
about obstructionism of the opposition parties, he will include other parties in his cabinet . Since
25


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