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Cabinet Duration in Latin American Presidential Democracies
Unformatted Document Text:  After pondering causal relationships among the covariates that could have significant effects on cabinet stability, the hypotheses that are needed to substantiate the causal model are tested, which include whether an exogenous shock, such as economic crisis, leads to the dissolution of cabinets and whether fragmentation and polarization in cabinet and/or parliament affect the cabinet duration. The economic performance of cabinets, which has been neglected by the events process theorists, is also included as an important covariate, since an exogenous crisis can be mitigated or aggravated by cabinet performance. The paper finds that the less fragmented a cabinet is, the more seats cabinet parties take in the parliament, the better the economic performance of a cabinet is, the more likely the cabinet is to be sustained. The paper proceeds as follows. First, a brief review of the pre-existing literature on cabinet duration is presented. Section 2 describes the data, model and measures used in the study. The study uses the Cox proportional hazards model to explain the stability of cabinets. Various hypotheses from the existing theories are empirically tested in section 3, and the findings are analyzed and discussed in section 4. Section 5 concludes. 1. Literature Review 1.1 Cabinet Duration in Western European Parliamentary Democracies Since Talyor and Herman (1971) tested the effects of a variety of institutional features on cabinet duration in Western European countries, two theoretical approaches to the duration of cabinets have been developed. The attributes theorists follow the approach of Talyor and Herman in the sense that they argue that they can predict cabinet durability based on certain institutional attributes that affect the stability of cabinets . In contrast, the events process theorists contend findings . 5

Authors: Shin, Jae Hyeok.
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After pondering causal relationships among the covariates that could have significant effects on
cabinet stability, the hypotheses that are needed to substantiate the causal model are tested, which
include whether an exogenous shock, such as economic crisis, leads to the dissolution of cabinets
and whether fragmentation and polarization in cabinet and/or parliament affect the cabinet
duration. The economic performance of cabinets, which has been neglected by the events process
theorists, is also included as an important covariate, since an exogenous crisis can be mitigated
or aggravated by cabinet performance. The paper finds that the less fragmented a cabinet is, the
more seats cabinet parties take in the parliament, the better the economic performance of a
cabinet is, the more likely the cabinet is to be sustained.
The paper proceeds as follows. First, a brief review of the pre-existing literature on
cabinet duration is presented. Section 2 describes the data, model and measures used in the study.
The study uses the Cox proportional hazards model to explain the stability of cabinets. Various
hypotheses from the existing theories are empirically tested in section 3, and the findings are
analyzed and discussed in section 4. Section 5 concludes.
1. Literature Review
1.1 Cabinet Duration in Western European Parliamentary Democracies
Since Talyor and Herman (1971) tested the effects of a variety of institutional features on cabinet
duration in Western European countries, two theoretical approaches to the duration of cabinets
have been developed. The attributes theorists follow the approach of Talyor and Herman in the
sense that they argue that they can predict cabinet durability based on certain institutional
attributes that affect the stability of cabinets . In contrast, the events process theorists contend
findings .
5


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