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Economic Development and Semi-Democracies: The Relationship between Economic Development and Political Regimes in Malaysia and Singapore, 1960-2004
Unformatted Document Text:  23 have any significant impact on the movement of Malaysia’s political regimes toward authoritarian state. As a result, we cannot reject the null hypothesis. This implies that economic development does not have significant relationship with Malaysia’s political [Table 9 and 10] regimes in the long run. The dynamic of Malaysia’s political regime is thus not dependent on economic development. For Singapore, polity and economic growth have Granger impact on Singapore’s polity. In model 1 (table 10), the F-Statistics of polity (72.24) and GDP (6.14) coefficients are jointly significant at p<0.01 level, respectively. This means that the characteristics of Singapore’s political regime depend on the past values of its previous regimes and the country’s economic growth. Income per capita does not have any significant impact on Singapore’s polity. Then I measured how much change of both Malaysia and Singapore’s political regimes in certain period are explained by other independent variables (GDP and per capita) by using the decomposition of variance. This method tells us how much change of variation in each of the endogenous variables in the system due to the changes in each of the endogenous variables over certain periods (Brandt and Williams 2007, p. 45). Therefore, we can see the explanatory power of the independent variables. Table 11 and 12 reveal the decomposition of forecast error variance for the Political regimes [Table 11 and 12]

Authors: Laiprakobsup, Thanapan.
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23
have any significant impact on the movement of Malaysia’s political regimes toward
authoritarian state. As a result, we cannot reject the null hypothesis. This implies that
economic development does not have significant relationship with Malaysia’s political
[Table 9 and 10]
regimes in the long run. The dynamic of Malaysia’s political regime is thus not
dependent on economic development.
For Singapore, polity and economic growth have Granger impact on Singapore’s
polity. In model 1 (table 10), the F-Statistics of polity (72.24) and GDP (6.14) coefficients
are jointly significant at p<0.01 level, respectively. This means that the characteristics of
Singapore’s political regime depend on the past values of its previous regimes and the
country’s economic growth. Income per capita does not have any significant impact on
Singapore’s polity.
Then I measured how much change of both Malaysia and Singapore’s political
regimes in certain period are explained by other independent variables (GDP and per
capita) by using the decomposition of variance. This method tells us how much change
of variation in each of the endogenous variables in the system due to the changes in
each of the endogenous variables over certain periods (Brandt and Williams 2007, p.
45). Therefore, we can see the explanatory power of the independent variables. Table
11 and 12 reveal the decomposition of forecast error variance for the Political regimes
[Table 11 and 12]


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