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Economic Development and Semi-Democracies: The Relationship between Economic Development and Political Regimes in Malaysia and Singapore, 1960-2004
Unformatted Document Text:  8 trigger and encourage transition to democracy. For instance, using dichotomous regime classification and probit model, Przeworski et al (2000) found that economic development, namely the increase of income per capita, does not causally trigger transition to democracy in authoritarian states. Unlike Przeworski et al, Boix and Stokes (2003) found that economic development can cause transition to democracy in poor authoritarian countries. Those statistical methods which they employed were maximum likelihood models, which measure the likelihood of economic development triggering transition to democracy. Yet, they did not measure how economic development affects democracy in the long run. Epstein et al (2006) employed time-series methods of survival model in order to see how economic development factors are more (or less) likely to help democratic regimes survive. But using trichotomous classification of democracy, Epstein et al did not tell us how political regimes respond to economic development over time. Previous studies tried to answer whether democracy is endogenous to economic development. But I believe that a more important question is how economic development and political regime are related in the long term. Second, previous research did not pay much attention to semi-democratic regimes. As I mentioned early, why they cannot be fully democratized and how economic development is related to the regimes are still understudied. We have learn so much from previous research that economic development is associated with richer countries, and democratic regimes are more stable in more advanced countries (Przeworski et al 2000). Still there are some countries (Asian NICs) which have been impressively performing in advancing their economies for several decades, but their

Authors: Laiprakobsup, Thanapan.
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trigger and encourage transition to democracy. For instance, using dichotomous regime
classification and probit model, Przeworski et al (2000) found that economic
development, namely the increase of income per capita, does not causally trigger
transition to democracy in authoritarian states. Unlike Przeworski et al, Boix and Stokes
(2003) found that economic development can cause transition to democracy in poor
authoritarian countries. Those statistical methods which they employed were maximum
likelihood models, which measure the likelihood of economic development triggering
transition to democracy. Yet, they did not measure how economic development affects
democracy in the long run. Epstein et al (2006) employed time-series methods of
survival model in order to see how economic development factors are more (or less)
likely to help democratic regimes survive. But using trichotomous classification of
democracy, Epstein et al did not tell us how political regimes respond to economic
development over time. Previous studies tried to answer whether democracy is
endogenous to economic development. But I believe that a more important question is
how economic development and political regime are related in the long term.
Second, previous research did not pay much attention to semi-democratic
regimes. As I mentioned early, why they cannot be fully democratized and how
economic development is related to the regimes are still understudied. We have learn
so much from previous research that economic development is associated with richer
countries, and democratic regimes are more stable in more advanced countries
(Przeworski et al 2000). Still there are some countries (Asian NICs) which have been
impressively performing in advancing their economies for several decades, but their


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