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Bandwagoning vs. Balancing Alliances in Regional Security Systems
Unformatted Document Text:  Licht 15 Dependent Variable The COW MID variable, cwmid, for onset of militarized interstate disputes measures dyadic conflict by year. This variable equals 1 for all dyad years where some level of conflict – between threat and war – obtained between the dyad partners. In this data set 576 out of 8,134 dyad years experience conflict. This amounts to over 6% of included years, quite a bit higher than would be found in a global sample. It is important to emphasize that the dependent variable taps dyadic outcomes not systemic ones. This is a particularly strong test of the power of system wide dynamics; it evaluates the ability of system characteristics to consistently impact diverse actors. Future tests will restructure the data in order to test truly systemic effects. Independent Variables Dominant powers within the regions are determined by preponderance of military capability as measured by the Correlates of War Composite Indicator of National Capabilities score. This index incorporates military, demographic and economic indicators. A dominant power exists if no other states within the region possess 80% or more of its CINC score in the current year. Thus, heg, is a dichotomous variable equaling one when the hegemon is a member of the dyad. A sizeable portion of dyad years, 37%, include the hegemon. Parity is conceptualized as a dichotomous variable similar to that employed by Lemke (2002). Parity equals one when the ratio of a subordinate state in the dyad’s CINC score to the regional power’s CINC score is greater than .8 but less than 1.2. Using this formulation, parity characterizes 651, or 8%, of dyad years within the dataset. ATOP’s dyad-year data set provides the data on alliance membership. Leeds (2003) demonstrates that the specific obligations formalized in alliances matter for their

Authors: Licht, Amanda.
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Licht 15
Dependent Variable
The COW MID variable, cwmid, for onset of militarized interstate disputes
measures dyadic conflict by year. This variable equals 1 for all dyad years where some
level of conflict – between threat and war – obtained between the dyad partners. In this
data set 576 out of 8,134 dyad years experience conflict. This amounts to over 6% of
included years, quite a bit higher than would be found in a global sample. It is important
to emphasize that the dependent variable taps dyadic outcomes not systemic ones. This is
a particularly strong test of the power of system wide dynamics; it evaluates the ability of
system characteristics to consistently impact diverse actors. Future tests will restructure
the data in order to test truly systemic effects.
Independent Variables
Dominant powers within the regions are determined by preponderance of military
capability as measured by the Correlates of War Composite Indicator of National
Capabilities score. This index incorporates military, demographic and economic
indicators. A dominant power exists if no other states within the region possess 80% or
more of its CINC score in the current year. Thus, heg, is a dichotomous variable
equaling one when the hegemon is a member of the dyad. A sizeable portion of dyad
years, 37%, include the hegemon.
Parity is conceptualized as a dichotomous variable similar to that employed by
Lemke (2002). Parity equals one when the ratio of a subordinate state in the dyad’s
CINC score to the regional power’s CINC score is greater than .8 but less than 1.2.
Using this formulation, parity characterizes 651, or 8%, of dyad years within the dataset.
ATOP’s dyad-year data set provides the data on alliance membership. Leeds
(2003) demonstrates that the specific obligations formalized in alliances matter for their


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