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Bandwagoning vs. Balancing Alliances in Regional Security Systems
Unformatted Document Text:  Licht 17 Control Variables Considering that alliance ties have previously been used to tap the power transition concept of “satisfied community”, I must include an appropriate control to take its place. This is provided by exgrw, a measure of extraordinary military buildups. This method is recommended by Werner and Kugler (1996) and employed by Lemke (2002). Exgrw is a dummy which equals one when the change in military spending of member of the dyad has increased beyond its 10-year average. An important realist counter to the liberal hegemon hypothesis contends that the power of the dominant state, not its regime type, depresses challengers. In order to control for this possibility, Regpow provides the regional hegemon’s CINC score for every dyad within the region. The empirical phenomena of the Democratic Peace suggests the need to include jointdem, a dummy switching on when both parties obtain Polity scores greater than or equal to 6. Ikenberry’s (2001) liberal hegemony argument also implies that the regime type of the dominant state may exert an indirect impact on the stability of its region. The hegemon’s regime type is measured by a transformation of the Polity index. 15 The measure, hegreg, is at 0 when there is no hegemon present in the dyad, and ranges from 1- least democratic, to 21-most democratic when the hegemon is present. The hegreg score is available only in asymmetric dyads – those which include a hegemon and minor power. Theory dictates, however, that the hegemon’s regime type will have systemic impact. Thus the variable reghegreg gives information on the democracy score of the 15 Several specifications of hegemon’s regime type were tested. First, a dichotomous measure equaling 1 when the hegemon exceeded a score of 6 on the polity index was used. A modification of the dummy variable, coding only modern democracies which exceeded the threshold of 6 was compared to that which did not differentiate based on time. A comparison of BIC statistics across the two models produced weak support for the modern democracies measure. The modern democracy measure was tested against the final, continuous measure. The BIC statistic comparison produced very strong evidence in support of the continuous hegreg measure over the dummies.

Authors: Licht, Amanda.
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Licht 17
Control Variables
Considering that alliance ties have previously been used to tap the power
transition concept of “satisfied community”, I must include an appropriate control to take
its place. This is provided by exgrw, a measure of extraordinary military buildups. This
method is recommended by Werner and Kugler (1996) and employed by Lemke (2002).
Exgrw is a dummy which equals one when the change in military spending of member of
the dyad has increased beyond its 10-year average. An important realist counter to the
liberal hegemon hypothesis contends that the power of the dominant state, not its regime
type, depresses challengers. In order to control for this possibility, Regpow provides the
regional hegemon’s CINC score for every dyad within the region.
The empirical phenomena of the Democratic Peace suggests the need to include
jointdem, a dummy switching on when both parties obtain Polity scores greater than or
equal to 6. Ikenberry’s (2001) liberal hegemony argument also implies that the regime
type of the dominant state may exert an indirect impact on the stability of its region. The
hegemon’s regime type is measured by a transformation of the Polity index.
The
measure, hegreg, is at 0 when there is no hegemon present in the dyad, and ranges from
1- least democratic, to 21-most democratic when the hegemon is present. The hegreg
score is available only in asymmetric dyads – those which include a hegemon and minor
power. Theory dictates, however, that the hegemon’s regime type will have systemic
impact. Thus the variable reghegreg gives information on the democracy score of the
15
Several specifications of hegemon’s regime type were tested. First, a dichotomous measure equaling 1
when the hegemon exceeded a score of 6 on the polity index was used. A modification of the dummy
variable, coding only modern democracies which exceeded the threshold of 6 was compared to that which
did not differentiate based on time. A comparison of BIC statistics across the two models produced weak
support for the modern democracies measure. The modern democracy measure was tested against the final,
continuous measure. The BIC statistic comparison produced very strong evidence in support of the
continuous hegreg measure over the dummies.


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