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Bandwagoning vs. Balancing Alliances in Regional Security Systems
Unformatted Document Text:  Licht 20 greater drop (6%) in conflict and has a stronger correlation with peaceful behavior. Overall alliance dynamics at the systemic level also exert a pacifying influence on pairs of states. Regions where more than 60% of possible bandwagoning ties are fulfilled experience a 4% drop in conflict; balancing systems, a 5% drop. [Tables 5 and 6 about here] The bivariate evidence regarding H 2b and H 3b – that bandwagoning alliances mitigate and balancing alliances aggravate the danger of parity between a dominant and (formerly) subordinate state– is less supportive still. Tables 7 and 8 present the cross- tabulations of dyadic balancing and bandwagoning ties with conflict at times of parity. Bandwagon alliances are correlated positively with conflict when the smaller state approximates the power of its hegemonic partner. Balancing alliances, however, correlate negatively with dispute onset; when a member of a balancing alliance reaches the same strength as the hegemon, it becomes less likely to fight with its ally. These relationships support the power transition model of war: a challenging state rising to parity with the hegemon gathers support from other subordinate, dissatisfied states to wage a war against the status quo powers. At least at the bivariate level, it does not appear that a satisfaction managing bandwagon alliance can subvert this pattern. The multivariate analyses reveal important information regarding the parity proposition and the effects of regional alliance dynamics which the simple tests above could not. Table 9 contains the results of the logistic regression. Each column of Table 9 presents an identical model, save for the alternation of the reference (or excluded) category in analysis. Results are presented in this fashion for ease of interpretation. Coefficients in interactive models cannot be interpreted simply as direct effects (Friedrich

Authors: Licht, Amanda.
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Licht 20
greater drop (6%) in conflict and has a stronger correlation with peaceful behavior.
Overall alliance dynamics at the systemic level also exert a pacifying influence on pairs
of states. Regions where more than 60% of possible bandwagoning ties are fulfilled
experience a 4% drop in conflict; balancing systems, a 5% drop.
[Tables 5 and 6 about here]
The bivariate evidence regarding H
2b
and H
3b
– that bandwagoning alliances
mitigate and balancing alliances aggravate the danger of parity between a dominant and
(formerly) subordinate state– is less supportive still. Tables 7 and 8 present the cross-
tabulations of dyadic balancing and bandwagoning ties with conflict at times of parity.
Bandwagon alliances are correlated positively with conflict when the smaller state
approximates the power of its hegemonic partner. Balancing alliances, however,
correlate negatively with dispute onset; when a member of a balancing alliance reaches
the same strength as the hegemon, it becomes less likely to fight with its ally. These
relationships support the power transition model of war: a challenging state rising to
parity with the hegemon gathers support from other subordinate, dissatisfied states to
wage a war against the status quo powers. At least at the bivariate level, it does not
appear that a satisfaction managing bandwagon alliance can subvert this pattern.
The multivariate analyses reveal important information regarding the parity
proposition and the effects of regional alliance dynamics which the simple tests above
could not. Table 9 contains the results of the logistic regression. Each column of Table 9
presents an identical model, save for the alternation of the reference (or excluded)
category in analysis. Results are presented in this fashion for ease of interpretation.
Coefficients in interactive models cannot be interpreted simply as direct effects (Friedrich


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